Global Macro Perspectives
After Standard & Poor’s cut Ireland credit rating down one notch from AA to AA- (with negative outlook) the Irish – German 10 year government bond yield spread widened to record high 330 bps. Bloomberg story on Ireland downgrade: Ireland’s Credit Rating Cut by S&P on Costs of Bank Aid. Chart 1. Irish – German 10 Year Government Bond […]
A kind of uneasy feeling surrounds markets today and I can see only negatives on the horizon: Japanese Yen and Australian dollar – currencies involved in financing equity bets moved against financing users. Peripheral Europe bond spreads rose in recent weeks; Greek are even close to pre-bailout levels. Hungarian Forint vs. Swiss Franc again close to all […]
Continuing with the continuing of the Hindenburg Omen Story: The Hindenburg Omen Confirmed. It got confirmed for second time on Friday. Zero Hedge post: Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week. Longs may be forgiven if they are sweating their long positions over the weekend: not only did […]
(Week Ending August 13, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending August 13 was reported down 10.0%. Prior reading was revised from -9.8% to -10.2%. Contrary to Conference Board LEI, ECRI Weakly Leading Index is pointing to a recession. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Continuing with Hindenburg Omen story. Apparently it got confirmed yesterday. Zero Hedge post: Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1. Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 […]
To continue with fun things this morning… Paul Krugman’s New York Times op-ed column: Paralysis at the Fed. Ten years ago, one of America’s leading economists delivered a stinging critique of the Bank of Japan, Japan’s equivalent of the Federal Reserve, titled “Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis?” With only a few changes in […]
This is at least fun to read…and the name is great. The Hindenburg Omen (Wikipedia definition) is a technical analysis pattern that is said to portend a stock market crash. Zero Hedge post: The Hindenburg Omen Has Arrived. Granted, the Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a crash, and the five criteria that must be […]
And we have QE 1.1. Lite. Direct monetization. Basic money printing. I’m surprised FED reacted so fast. To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities […]
We have a slow day today with no economic data in the U.S. Europe is trading on average up 1.5%, U.S. futures are up 0.3%, so it looks U.S. markets are not going to follow European lead. Sell side macro economists are following Goldman’s (brilliant) Jan Hatzius lead and reducing GDP growth both for second half of 2010 and […]
ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending July 30 was reported down 10.3%. Prior reading was at -10.7%. So, that’s probably it for this time… Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
This is the best piece of analysis I have read this year. Enjoy.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index is down 10.7%. Prior reading was at -10.5%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
It remains to be seen whether the today’s U.S. GDP reading (for Q2) will flash slowdown, but no doubt remains that this quarter (Q3) will be ugly. Chart 1. Consumer Metrics Institute‘s Growth Index vs. Official Quarterly GDP Growth Rates
This is supposed to be bearish. Chart 1. S&P 500
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 1.7% in May; S&P/Case-Shiller 20 HPI composite rose 1.3% in May. Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 0.5%; Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite also rose 0.5%. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20