Global Macro Perspectives
Today’s Financial Times front-page: Germany accused of reneging on bank tests. The tests – designed to restore nervous markets’ faith in European banks, shaken by the near-default of Greece this year – were supposed to be accompanied by full disclosure of each bank’s sovereign debt holdings. But six of the 14 German banks tested – Deutsche Bank, Postbank, […]
Apparently, out of 91 European Union banks only 7 (seven!!!) have failed the test: Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, Agricultural Bank of Greece SA and five Spanish savings banks. The test points out that the banks that failed the test have combined capital shortfall of 3.5 billion euros ($4.5 billion). What a joke of a […]
We have crossed the -10.0% critical level which has historically predicted recession with 100% accuracy. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Aggregate results of European bank stress tests will be published today at 17.30 CET (Central European Time)/ 11.30 New York time by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors. From then on, individual countries supervisors or banks will publish their results with no exact timeline determined. The test will cover 91 banks in 20 countries, which account for […]
Initial jobless claims were reported at 464.000. The consensus was at 445.000, last week revised reading was at 427.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Floating at (a temporary) bottom… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Ouch…. It looks bad on first sight, but when we exclude non-recurring items (SEC settlement, U.K. bank payroll tax) the figure is $2.75. Press release. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) today reported net revenues of $8.84 billion and net earnings of $613 million for its second quarter ended June 30, 2010. Diluted earnings per common share were $0.78 […]
FT.com Opinion Piece: Today’s Keynesians have learnt nothing. Great piece by the world most famous historian. Expansionary policy leads only to increase in debt, inflation and subsequent losses by the creditors. It was said of the Bourbons that they forgot nothing and learned nothing. The same could easily be said of some of today’s latter-day Keynesians. […]
As I wrote in Dry Bulk Weekly it appears that Chinese removal of steel export tax rebates is a complete game changer for the industry. The slowdown in Chinese iron ore imports is easing port congestion which tied approximately 20% of the world fleet a few weeks ago. The port congestion has since then eased by […]
Interesting paper on HFT : via FT Alphaville: Quant-ifying the HFT effect in stock movements. via Zero Hedge: Scientific Proof That High Frequency Trading Induces Adverse Changes In Market Microstructure And Dynamics, And Puts Market Fairness Under Question.
Again down… Longest loosing streak in nine years. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Belisarius is keeping this week’s posts short as he’s on vacation and in a beach vs. blogging standoff the beach is winning. The markets, anyhow, make no sense as gunning the market up on a no economic data week is the flavor of the week. This is the beach Belisarius enjoyed today.
I already wrote that Greece returning to financial markets despite receiving fully funded bailout is a stupid idea: Greece Returns To Financial Markets. Apparently idea to issue 1-year bills was scraped and they are planing to issue 6-month notes. Reuters story: Greece to sell 1.25 bln eur of 6-mth T-bills July 13. Greece will auction 1.25 billion euros ($1.58 […]
Well, we are just shy of critical level of -10.0% level despite improving initial jobless claims and equity market bounce. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Again down… Brake-even for shipowners is around 2.200, so most of of the shipping companies are losing money at this levels. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index