Global Macro Perspectives
I don’t see any encouraging data for the dry bulk industry, we are probably years away from recovery.
Last week Baltic Dry Index rose 4.9%; Capesize Index was down 6.9%; Panamax Index rose 14.0%; Supramax Index was up 8.9%; Handysize Index rose 8.5%.
China steel and coal inventories edged up while their prices moved down. Iron ore inventory on the other hand moved down, while price showed some signs of recovery. Overall the demand in these markets seems weak.
Almost half a year passed since my last post. I have to say I miss my blogging, so one of my New Year decisions was start over, probably not with intensity as in the best days…
In the mean time we had a wild ride with equity and most of the other prices in China, but ultimately (concerning shipping) the result is that we are about where we were 6 months ago, only the dry bulk fleet now is even bigger.
HSBC/Markit PMI fell from 48.4 to 48.2.
It’s been a while a posted my last post. My day job has become really exhaustive and it’s quite difficult for me to find time to write. I hope I will manage to post at least a couple of posts per week in the future.
In the mean time all things China (including shipping) has deteriorated further.
Baltic dry index rose 2.7% last week; Capesize Index was up 3.0%; Panamax Index fell 6.1%; Supramax Index was up 6.6%; Handysize Index rose 2.0%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports mostly flat, price moved lower. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price moved lower. Thermal coal inventory at all-time high, price moved lower.
HSBC/Markit PMI fell from 49.3 to 48.7.
Large discrepancy between HSBC/Markit and “official” PMI.
Baltic dry index rose 0.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 1.2%; Panamax Index fell 3.6%; Supramax Index was down 0.4%; Handysize Index rose 3.7%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports mostly flat, price moved lower on risk-off. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price moved marginally lower. Thermal coal inventory rose, price remained unchanged.
China retail sales rose 14.1% y-o-y in April vs. 15.2% March reading. Consensus was at 15.1%.
China fixed asset investments were up 20.2% y-o-y in April; March reading was at 20.9%. Consensus was at 20.5%.
Lowest reading since 2002.
Industrial production in China rose 9.3 % y-o-y in April; March reading was at 11.9%. Consensus was at 12.2%.
Another bad piece of data.
China Consumer Price Index was up 3.4% in April, vs. 3.4% consensus and 3.6% March reading. Food inflation rose fell from 7.5 to 7.0%.
China Producer Price Index fell to -0.7% from -0.3% in April. Consensus was at -.5%.
The chart looks outright bad.
China trade balance was reported at USD 18.4 billion vs. USD 5.4 billion in December and USD 9.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 4.9 and 0.3 percent vs. 8.9% and 5.3% in March.
Baltic dry index rose 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 5.1%; Panamax Index fell 12.1%; Supramax Index was up 1.5%; Handysize Index rose 2.2%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports and price mostly flat. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory rose a bit, price unchanged.
HSBC/Markit PMI rose from 48.3 to 49.1.
Large discrepancy between HSBC/Markit and “official” PMI. Looks like a slight overreaction by the markets (if we view this in isolation).
Baltic dry index rose 9.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.5%; Panamax Index rose 28.4%; Supramax Index was up 9.0%; Handysize Index rose 4.1%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports fell in the recent weeks; price pretty much unchanged. Steel stockpiles fell from all time-high, but remained at elevated levels while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory fell further, price moved a bit higher lower.
I didn’t post for a while, but nothing material happened in the shipping markets during that time.
HSBC/Markit PMI fell from 49.6 to 48.1.