Global Macro Perspectives
No surprise they intervened, only the scale of the exchange rate move is somewhat surprising to me. Nice candle. Yen strengthening was the result of China increasing its portion of foreign currency reserves held in Japanese Yen, probably attempting to soften U.S. anger over China exchange rate policy by causing problems elsewhere. The world of competitive debasement continues, probably with increased intensity; they will […]
Another brilliant commentary by John P. Hussman of Hussman funds. Impulse Response by John P. Hussman of Hussman funds (www.hussmanfunds.com). …So what is the most likely outcome of this situation? In my view, the next three months represent the most serious window for the U.S. economy and labor market. The typical 23-26 week lag between […]
Yield was at 4.82 vs. 4.65 on July 13. Mighty high as Greece supposedly received 2-year fully funded bailout package. German 6-month rate is at 0.43%.
(For September 2010) ZEW Germany expectation of economic growth for September came out at -4.3 vs. 10 consensus and 14.0 reading for July. Further indication of slowdown in German economy. Chart 1. ZEW Germany Expectation of Economic Growth vs. Assessment Current Situation 6-Month Lag
Extension of European debt problems returned as a mayor concern this week. Most notable problem is, off-course, much hyped Ireland’s banking system nationalization. Latest leg included spiting up Anglo Irish. Bloomberg: Ireland’s Burial Plan for Anglo Irish Keeps Cost Question Alive. Irish 10 year government yield spread versus same maturity German issue moved to new highs. Chart 1. Ireland vs. Germany […]
I will be away from my computer from now till Thursday, so regular service continues on Thursday, September 9.
It’s a slow day both in terms of data scheduled to be released and in terms of trading. The bias is negative. Surprise of the day is 2.2% fall in German manufacturing orders for July. The consensus was at 0.5%, June reading at 3.2%. Given the recent strength in German economy, this comes as a quite big negative surprise. Chart […]
(For July 2010) U.S. factory orders rose 0.1% in July. The consensus was at 0.3%, prior reading was at -1.2%. Factory shipments rose 1.1%, June reading was at -0.5%. Chart 1. U.S. Manufacturers New Orders & Shipments
Till we get the actual number…. The consensus is at 52.8. Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia and Empire State Manufacturing Surveys
Integral version. In general, something for everybody. Looks like it puzzled the markets, but I think the focus tomorrow will be on FOMC unwillingness (for the time being) to “resume large-scale asset purchases”. My take: Economic outlook. Little bit too positive in my view. In the economic forecast prepared for the AugustFOMC meeting, the staff lowered its projection for theincrease […]
(For August 2010) Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 53.5 vs. 50.7 consensus and 51.0 reading for July. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Excellent opinion piece in todays Financial Times by Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart. Carmen Reinhart co-authored with Kenneth S. Rogoff now famous study on public and foreign debt: Growth in a Time of Debt. Finacial Times link (subscription required): Beware those who think the worst is past. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, painted a […]
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) Initial jobless claims were reported at 473.000. The consensus was at 495.000, last week revised reading was at 504.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Time passes so fast. Today marks one year since my first post (The World Today) was released. It has been a troublesome year both for the markets and for me. In meantime I have changed firms and I have to say (despite hardship in the process) it worked out great. 652 posts later I have to […]
Just to note…the Hindenburg Omen has been confirmed for third time. It reoccurs quite often in the last couple of weeks which is quite unusual, but I suspect this is a product of (strangely) high market correlation. Chart 1. CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index