Global Macro Perspectives
We still don’t have any reaction from the markets on recent issues with mortgage documentation and to be frank I still don’t know what to think on all that. In terms of housing market possibilities are: 1. This all is overblown and the number of mortgages with defective legal documents is insignificant. 2. Number of mortgages with defective legal documents is […]
This is absolutely great.
FT Alpaville was first to report this: An anonymous tip-off regarding Spanish GDP… The big question then, according to the author(s), is the ‘real’ level of Spain’s GDP. Using a deviation of 24 per cent in market services, 5 per cent in manufacturing and 6 per cent in construction, the author comes up with a […]
Moody’s lowered Spain to Aa1 from Aaa with a stable outlook. This was widely expected, Spain bond spreads narrowed. Bloomberg story: Spain’s Credit Rating Cut One Level to Aa1 by Moody’s. Ireland bank rescue price tag was estimated at USD 68 billion or 32% of Ireland’s GDP. Bloomberg story: Ireland Faces $68 Billion Bank Rescue to Prop Up Allied, Anglo. […]
Irish spreads again a bit higher today. Irish government will announce tomorrow the details of Anglo Irish burial rescue. So far the bank has received EUR 23 billion of state help, tomorrow will be added additional EUR 10-15 billion. Incidental tomorrow marks two years of Irish government guaranteeing Anglo Irish debt and the guarantee is not (jet) extended. So, there is a possibility that some EUR 5.7 billion […]
Irish 10 year government bond yield spread versus same maturity German moved to new record high today. European markets resemble roller coaster ride today, having fallen post opening and paring losses after some verbal intervention from ECB officials. Irish story is starting to more and more look like Greece earlier. Chart 1. Ireland vs. Germany […]
Moody’s just downgraded Anglo Irish senior unsecured debt by three notches (A3/Prime-1 to Baa3/Prime-3) and subordinated debt by six notches (Ba1 to Caa1). Irish spreads unchanged at Fridays record highs. Downgrade (as usual) when the market price has already ran its course.
(For August 2010) If you were (same as I) wondering why market moved up it was because of this. Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.3% in August. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior revised reading was at 0.1%. On year level LEI is up 6.9% vs. 7.2% in July. Digging little deeper we can […]
Irish and Portuguese 10 year government bond yield spread versus same maturity German keep on rising. Latest rumors are that tha Anglo Irish creditors will not be paid off in full. Ireland auctioned February 2011 and April 2010 bills today; bit to cover for February bills fell from 9.4 times on previous auction to 4.1 times; bit to cover […]
New highs today for Irish and Portuguese 10 year government bond yield spread versus same maturity German. Greece yields off recent highs. ECB is not managing to put this under control. Chart 1. Ireland vs. Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Spread Chart 2. Portugal vs. Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Spread Chart 3. Greece vs. Germany […]
They admitted only that the pace of recovery has slowed in recent months and introduced a hint of additional measures. Like I expected only the weakening economic activity is not fully addressed. Unexpectedly a fear of deflation and a will to fight it is introduced into statement (in two instances), in my view completely off the mark. The main […]
I would say that the market (equity especial) is pricing further QE measures being announced today. Since there was some reservation and conflicting views during the last FOMC meeting on the reinvestment of agency and MBS debt and economic data is not deteriorating as fast as in anticipation of previous meeting, the odds that FED will introduce additional QE today are slim, in […]
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research announced today said that through in business activity in U.S. occurred in June 2009 making the and of the recession that began in December 2007. From the press release. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At […]
Irish 10 year government yield spread versus same maturity German issue rose today to new highs. Both Barclays Capital and Goldman Sachs issued their reports in the last couple of days claiming it is not clear whether Ireland can finance its budget deficit without EU/IMF help. On Friday ECB intervened buying Irish government bonds. FT story: ECB intervenes in […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.1%. No improvements in supply/demand balance. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes