Global Macro Perspectives
FED just released that the benchmark rate remains unchanged. The “extended period” is still here. Business conditions are improving but at subdued rate: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is […]
I’m puzzled by the market action in recent days. It fells that something is wrong, but I major move down doesn’t seem probable. The news and blogosphere are full of stories on Mr. Bernanke and AIG/Goldman Sachs/Societe Generale unwinding. Both are neither interesting neither useful in investing. Who cares what happened more than year ago, […]
Consumer confidence increased in January to 55.9 vs. December’s 53.6 and a consensus of 53.5. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Markets got their boost when it became obvious that FED chairman Mr. Ben Bernanke will be conformed for the second term. The trading feels anemic, but I think that we will not see a sequel to Friday action in the next days. VIX is down, equity up, treasuries down. Greece, contrary to my views will […]
Equity collapsed. VIX exploded. Monday will be a big day for the markets. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. VIX
After sleeping it off and giving a little tough on Barack Obama’s proposal of new financial regulation I still think this is HUGE. Because it is so HUGE, I have some doubts how the final version would look like. Similar as with health care reform, a strong opposition backed by almost unlimited (lobbying) funds will […]
This is huge, if it is implemented. No propitiatory trading operations No hedge fund investments No private equity funds investments 11:34 A.M. EST THE PRESIDENT: Good morning, everybody. I just had a very productive meeting with two members of my Economic Recovery Advisory Board: Paul Volcker, who’s the former chair of the Federal Reserve Board; […]
The focus on China continues. China statistic bureau reported China economy grew 10.7%. Bloomberg story: China’s GDP Growth Accelerates to Fastest Since 2007. The market focused on what wasn’t told in the report. Apparently the press release was missing the references to keeping “moderately loose monetary policy” and a “proactive fiscal policy”. The intense to […]
All the fuss today on a news that China maybe has started to slow down the credit growth. WSJ story: Bank of China to Take Steps to Rein In Loans. We have so many alerts coming from various data points and the market reacts violently on this kind of news. Equity was down, bonds an […]
The TARP repayment has cost Citigroup and its shareholders $6.2 billion. It seems that shareholders can’t get enough of value decreasing and diluting efforts by the Citi management. Shares are trading +1.2%. The loan loss provisions were again reduced while credit delinquencies rose. Citigroup today reported a full year 2009 net loss of $1.6 billion, […]
Intel (INTC): Q4 EPS of $0.40 vs. consensus of $0.10. Revenue of $10.6B (+28%) vs. $10.2B. Gross margin of 65%. JPMorgan (JPM): Q4 EPS of $0.74 vs. consensus of $0.87. Revenue of $23.16B vs. $26.8B. Adds $1.9B to consumer loan loss reserves, resulting in firm wide credit reserves of $32.5B and loan loss coverage ratio […]
I was away from the computer and away from the markets, so let me recap most important developments. MBA purchase applications were up 0.8% vs. 3.6% the week before. Retail sales in December disappointed coming out at -0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus and 1.3% in November. Initial jobless claims edged up reaching 444.000 vs. 437.000 consensus […]
Alcoa earnings loss raised questions on strength of earnings reported in earnings season started this week. Will it evolve to something more then temporary weakness it depends primarily on reported earnings and U.S. dollar exchange rate. For me, the path is still not clear. On the economic data front we had trade balance reported today. […]
Alcoa (AA) reported loss from continuing operations of $266 million, or $0.27 per share. The consensus was a profit of $0.08 per share. Net charges for restructuring, special items and discrete tax items of $275 million, or $0.28 per share. A large miss, but it’s popular these days to disregard reported EPS although Alcoa has […]
The trading in Asia and Europe today was dominated by China export data. Apparently China exports rose 17.7% y-o-y for December almost reaching pre-crisis levels. The consensus was at 5%. In the same time imports grew 55.9% y-o-y, vs. the consensus forecast of 32.5% . The trade surplus reached $18.4 billion in December, about 60% […]