Global Macro Perspectives
Earnings season starts this week. Looks it will have the same flavor as last couple of earnings seasons. Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Bank Mutual (BKMU), Skyline (SKY), Alcoa (AA), Audiovox (VOXX), WD-40 (WDFC), Volt Information Sciences Inc. (VOL), Helen of Troy (HELE) Tuesday: The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (GAP), Supervalu (SVU), […]
Well, I was wrong. Nonfarm payrolls for December were reported at -85.000 vs 10.000 consensus and 4.000 the month before (revised up 15.000). Unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0%. Average hourly earnings was up 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus and 0.1% in November. Average workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours. A negative surprise. Weak negative reaction […]
As I already wrote in multiple posts, I expect employment figures to post a positive surprise on Friday. Well, it seems that the Labor Department seasonal adjustments will provide large help to report positive data. New York Post Story: Why the government’s job figures won’t add up. Since so few jobs were created in December […]
It’s hard for me to focus on the markets, as action and especially news flow seem pretty boring to me. The same stories (forecast) all over and over again… Well, it all comes to unemployment figures on Friday, maybe we will have some sense on the future direction of the markets. Lot of hype on […]
ISM Manufacturing Index for December came out at 55.9 vs. 54.8 consensus and 53.6 reading for November. Construction spending for November fell -0.6% M-o-M (-13.2% Y-o-Y) vs. -0.5% consensus and flat reading for October. The news of the day came out of China. China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 56.1. Bloomberg story: Chinese Manufacturing Grows […]
Happy New Year! Lots of luck with your investing!
Belisarius has a quite severe case of cold, so light posting today. Consumer confidence for December came out at 53 vs. 52.9 consensus and 49.5 prior reading. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices came out flat. Since the indexes are three month rolling averages, fatigue in house price recovery is evident. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Well, I it is safe to say that again markets rallied on no improved fundamentals and on light volume during holiday time. The most profitable companies have lagged during this run. Bloomberg link: Most Profitable CEOs Get Smallest Gains in S&P 500. Anything could happen, the rally could last…. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao again reaffirmed […]
I would always go with Goldman Sachs. Since the sell side analysts and mainstream media are on the story, probably the majority of a downward move has been done. Bloomberg story: Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits. As I already wrote in Shorting Long Dated Treasuries, I believe this is one of […]
I’m on vacation next week, so maybe I’ll write a post or two, maybe not. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone! Free Christmas Wallpapers
It is getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US’s shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas… “The United States cannot force foreign governments to increase their holdings of Treasuries,” Zhu said, according to an audio recording of his remarks. “Double the holdings? It is definitely impossible.” “The US […]
Nothing serious, but a hint on what could happen. WSJ: Iraqi Oil Officials Accuse Iranians of Holding Iraqi Oil Field.
Although this in not a blog on politics this particular situation could have enormous impact on markets. Iran and it’s nuclear ambitions and the further developments could pose a future large shock to the markets and unfortunately I think, time wise, something could happen very fast. Maybe early as next year. Nice outline of the […]
Asia closed negative today, Europe is trading also negative -0.5% on average. After I started began to doubt my calls on TARP repayments as a potential correction catalyst the Citigroup equity offering has turn out to be full blown fiasco. The offering was priced yesterday at $3.15 per share, a 20+ percent lower the share […]
The target rate remains the same; extended period phrase is here: The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels […]