Global Macro Perspectives
I was on the road yesterday, so the usual service suffered… The most important piece of news yesterday was FED’s decision to increase the discount rate by 0.25%, to 0.75%. The measure has a marginal real impact on the banking sector, but it could have large psychological impact. The political and media orchestrated “recovery” pressures […]
The markets move exclusively on currency moves. The lack of market receptiveness of economic data shows that we are in some sort of irrational mode again. Data yesterday was mixed but with small deviations from the expected values. Empire state manufacturing survey general business conditions index was a positive surprise of the day and was reported […]
The initial jobless claims positively surprised declining 40.000 from the prior week and reaching 440.000. The consensus was at 467.000. It looks that combined with census hiring the positive cold continue. The markets yesterday closed positively yesterday on news that E.U. will back up Greece. The statement was obviously a product of lack of consensus. […]
The equity indexes moved higher on the statement by EU officials and European politicians on Greece. In short the statement offers no concrete solution; it orders Greece to cut it’s deficit; to solve the “statistical measurement problems”, even calls the IMF… A mess and we move higher on that…
The quantity of news articles and blog post on Greece reached greatest number ever. Too much of attention to a issue that is important to the markets only if we look at it as a warning signal. The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly rose to $40.2 billion vs. $35.7 billion consensus and $36.4 billion November. Well, […]
Marvin King: It was at this press conference one year ago that I explained the asset purchase programme to you. That was at a time of sharply falling output and collapsing confidence. Since then, the position has improved considerably. Output has stabilised and confidence has recovered. The additional money created by the asset programme will […]
One of the most important piece of data being reported this week is Chinese money supply. When giving a little thought to the meter, it gives a negative impulse to the markets turned both ways. If the growth continues we have asset bubbles forming and inflation threat; If growth slows down we have a threat […]
Markets still focus on Europe and in particular Greece. There are some rumors today that Unicredit and Deutsche bank have ceased to accept Greek government bonds as a collateral; there are also some rumors that the capital flight from Greece is reaching alarming levels. It looks the Greece story is approaching its climax and we […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: CVS Caremark (CVS), Lincoln National (LNC), Principal Financial Group (PFG), Lorillard (LO), Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG), Loews (L) Tuesday: Cameron International (CAM), Cerner (CERN), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), Biogen Idec (BIIB), Walt Disney (DIS), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) Wednesday: Omnicom […]
As I wrote yesterday: Can’t See The Forest For The Trees; the EU deficit and debt problems are far smaller than for the U.S., particular U.S. states, U.K. and Japan. Jean- Claude Trichet seems to agree. Bloomberg story: Trichet Struggles to Convince on Euro-Area Solidity. Still, Trichet said the “solidity” of the euro area “is […]
The market looks like today is just an intro. The 1.085 level broken, and technicians say the next target is 1.035 (I don’t believe in that, but since a lot of investors looks at that…). Beside bad initial jobless claims (480.000 vs. 455.000 consensus and 470.000 consensus) the main theme is PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, […]
The markets managed to find new strength to escape negative sentiment from the last week. It looks that the S&P 500 support was broken for just one afternoon and that could prove to fuel further short term gains. No major economic data today, so just a short look at yesterdays. The big news was ISM […]
The index was reported at 57.4, up from 56.1 in the previous month. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist for China at HSBC said: Industrial activity continues to accelerate, implying stronger GDP growth in 1Q. But rising input and output prices also point to greater inflationary pressure, which will likely prompt more tightening measures in the coming […]
U.S. GDP Rose 5.6% in Q4 2009. The consensus was at 4.5%, Q3 reading was at 2.2%. Chart1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent Change
Record Bund/Greek government bond spread is crucial market moving factor today. A lot of rumors on the issue. Bloomberg story: Papandreou Says Rumors Hurt Greece, Not Seeking Aid. As I wrote before I expected a meltdown before this weeks bond issue, but apparently they manged to sell the bonds, but the pain continues… Durable orders […]