Global Macro Perspectives
As I expected non-farm payrolls came out yesterday at -36.000 for February vs. -50.000 consensus and a revised -26.000 figure for January. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.7% vs. 9.8% consensus. We could say that the job losses for U.S. economy are approaching its end. Chart 1. Unemployment Rate & Non-Farm Payrolls Change
Outstanding consumer credit rose annualized 2.4% in January following a annualized 2.2% decline in December. January increase in consumer credit ended a 15 month long negative streak. Table 1. Consumer Credit
Initial jobless claims fell 27.000 to 469.000. The consensus was at 475.000. Chart 1. Initial Jobless Claims
ADP Employment fell 20,000 in February vs. decline of a 22,000 in January. Challenger Job-Cut Report announced layoffs fell from 71,482 in January to 42,090 in February. If we rely on these reports as a indication of nonfarm payrolls we could be heading for a better than (50,000) consensus reading on Friday. Chart 1. ADP […]
Greece government introduced yesterday a new austerity package and a tax increases. The value of the package is 4.8 billion of EUR. Half is aimed at spending cuts and half on tax increases. The tax increases will only ad to the dead spiral decreasing economic activity, and then again decreasing tax revenues… But that is […]
Looks like both are topping out, the official in an ugly way. We will see whether the official one will again lead the unofficial one. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI / HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Almost every piece of data is on consensus. Slow growth in income and outlays; savings falling. The rates are small, too small to make a needed difference in consumer spending. Chart 1. Personal Income Chart 2. Personal Outlays Chart 3. Personal Savings % Of Disposable Personal Income
ISM Manufacturing Index came out at 56.5 vs. prior reading of 58.4 and consensus of 57.5. Chart 1. ISM Manufacturing Index
Existing home sales fell 7.2% to 5.050.000 million SAAR. Consensus was at 5.500.000 million. An ugly number, detoriation in U.S. housing continues. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales
We have clear roll over of leading indicators in recent weeks and a deterioration in housing, jobless claims, durable goods orders today and bad consumer confidence reading. Seems that the markets do not appreciate the data. Things that move the markets are only FED policy on rates, dollar strength and Greece debt problems. China credit […]
Initial jobless claims rose 23.000 to 496.000- The consensus was at 460.000. It’s not a “V” shaped recovery at all. Chart 1. Initial Jobless Claims
A negative surprise if we take airplanes out; Durable goods orders rose 3% vs. 1.5% consensus and 0.3% prior reading; Durable goods orders excluding transportation fell -0.6% vs. 0.9% growth in December. Chart 1. Durable Goods Orders Chart 2. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation
The important part: The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. Full version.
Markets are down, the negative surprise was Conference Board Consumer Confidence which came out at 46 vs. 55 consensus and 56.5 for January. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Press release. Consumers’ assessment of current-day conditions soured in February. Those claiming conditions are “good” decreased to 6.2 percent from 8.5 percent, while those claiming business […]
Some interesting and controversial comments and predictions from Marc Faber in today’s media reports: Bloomberg story: China New Village Makes Chanos See Dubai 1,000 Times. “It does not make sense for China to build more empty buildings and add to capacities in industries where you already have overcapacity,” Faber told Bloomberg Television on Feb. 11. […]