Global Macro Perspectives
Although I don’t agree with every piece of trading advice it can be derived from the piece; todays economic commentary by Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg is one of the most impressive research pieces I have ever read. Link.
Consumer sentiment for March was at 73.6 vs. 73 consensus and 72.5 prior reading. Chart 1. University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
Apparently the agreement on potential bailout of Greece has been reached. Bloomberg story: Sarkozy Reverse on German IMF Demand Caps Losing Week. The whole story with the Greece is stupid, they have not defaulted jet, so they do not have to be saved. Only thing it could help them in the moment is an EU […]
All the fuss yesterday was because of this: When these tools are used to drain reserves from the banking system, they do so by replacing bank reserves with other liabilities; the asset side and the overall size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet remain unchanged. If necessary, as a means of applying monetary restraint, the […]
Well, S&P 500 is moving steadily to 1200. Equity markets are disregarding anything happening in the real world, both positive or negative. VIX, together with historical volatility is flirting with the post Lehman lows. Everything is just fine. It looks nothing will change, but I’m sure it will. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. VIX
As I already wrote; looks we are heading towards a breakout. Chart 1. S&P 500
“Exceptionally Low Federal Funds Rate For Extended Period” still here; FED funds rate stays at 0%-0.25% in 9:1 vote with Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig voting again against. Economic activity picking up; high unemployment; business spending is recovering; housing relapse: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic […]
Another twist of bad news for U.S. housing. HMI came out at 17 vs. 15 in February. Both current and future components edged down. Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
Chinese Prime Minister Mr. Wen Jiabao delivered a pretty straight forward answer on the U.S. led calls for a yuan appreciation. China official stance is: Yuan is not undervalued; the calls for a Yuan appreciation are clear protectionist acts – they plan to support China export led growth; China is concerned about its U.S. dollar […]
Just for the record retail sales rose 0.3% in February (courtesy of weather adjustment; without that we would have -0.1%) . The consensus was at -0.2%, January reading at 0.5%. Autos taken out, the figure was 0.8%; the consensus was at 0%; prior reading at 0.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Retail sales
Consumer sentiment for March came out at 72.5 vs. 74 consensus and 73.6 prior reading. Chart 1. University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
Initial jobless claims fell 7.000 to 462.000. The consensus was at 460.000. Chart 1. Initial Jobless Claims
China exports were up 45.7% in February vs. 38.3% consensus and 21% in January. Imports rose 44.7% vs. 38% consensus and 85.5% in January. Trade surplus shrank to $7.6 billion vs. $14.2 billion in January. The consensus was at $7.2 billion. The trade surplus is shrinking, less imports now could mean less exports in the […]
The dream of every gold bull got shattered today by Yi Gang, head of the China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): It is, in fact, impossible for gold to become a major investment channel for China’s foreign exchange reserves. I have 1,000 tonnes now, and even if I doubled that holding, according to current […]
The markets have arrived to the crucial point for the short term direction. If the markets manage to close above today’s close at least for three consecutive sessions we could be poised for a breakout to the above. If the today’s levels don’t hold up the route to S&P 500 1000 mark is open. Chart […]