Carry Trade Unwinding
Ugly looking candle today. Looks the reason is EUR/JPY carry trade unwind, probably as a result of European debt problems. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. Euro vs. Japanese Yen
Archive for the ‘Markets’ Category
March Personal Income & Consumer Spending Tick Up
Personal income rose 0.3% MoM vs. 0.4% consensus and 0% prior reading. On YoY level the personal income is up 3%, but most of the increase comes due the low base effects. Consumer spending rose 0.6% MoM vs. 0.6% consensus and 0.3% prior reading. On YoY level the consumer spending is up 2.9%. The data […]
Big China Call By Marc Faber
Words from the man himself: China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst. Bloomberg story: China May ‘Crash’ in Next 9 to 12 Months, Faber Says. Well, like most of his calls, this could also be on […]
Situation Calming Down In Europe
Looks like politicians have managed to calm the markets down with words of support for a Greek bailout. Apparently the newly issued debt will be junior to the one outstanding. There is even some talk that the program would be a fully funded 2-year program. This means something like $100 – $150 billion. Greek government […]
FOMC Statement, April 28 2010
Nothing major. FED Press Release. Economic activity picking up; Business spending improving; Construction spending not; Labor market beginning to improve. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve. Growth in household spending has picked up […]
MBA Mortgage Applications Down 2.9%
MBA mortgage applications fell 2.9% for week ending 16 April, the prior reading was an increase of 13.6%. Large surge in purchase index (+7.4%) was more than offset by falling refinance index (-8.8%). Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Euro Stoxx 50 Bellow Trendline
Euro Stoxx 50 broke all the moving averages and moved bellow the trend line. Chart 1. Euro Stoxx 50
Greece & Portugal Update
Well, the Greek government bonds are getting destroyed, Portuguese follow suit. European politicians have to send some kind of message of reassurance to the markets otherwise we could be bound for a quite of a collapse. Chart 1. Greek Government Bond Yield Curve Chart 2. Portugal Government Bond Yield Curve
Greek Bailout Doubts Arise
All the fuss today is the markets realizing that EUR 45 billion is not enough to save Greece from debt restructuring. Looking at the yield curves markets believe maturities shorter than 2 years will be paid in full. Longer duration holders could see some principal loss in debt restructuring. Portugal off-course followed Greece lead. Markets […]
Initial Jobless Claims Fell 28.000
Initial jobless claims were reported at 456.000. The consensus was at 460.000, last week reading was at 484.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Source: Blytic.com
Commercial Real Estate Resuming Negative Trend
Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index declined 2.6% in February and 25.8% YoY. The chart was constructed with Blytic.You will need to install Microsoft Silverlight to view the graph and use Blytic. I absolutely love the site.
Goldman Sachs Scandal Sending The Markets Down?
In case you live on a different planet, this is the collection of articles and blog posts on the biggest story this year: SEC/Goldman linkfest by FT Alphaville. If you look at the media, they love it and they have incorporated all the bailout injustice into the story. Dylan Ratigan show: Visit msnbc.com for breaking […]
Route 1200 Update 1.0
With the short term target (almost) reached I would take the money off the table. Chart 1. S&P 500
Greece Bailout Reads
Well, the time has come to put the money on the table. The problem is that the amount promised has to probably be multiplied by a factor of 3 to be enough to finance Greek budget deficit and refinance Greek public debt, to only subsequently result in an wasted time and money. Again, only principal […]
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – 8 April 2010
Working gas in storage rose 31 Bcf from previous week. Price rebounded on oversold conditions/short squeeze and again returned to downward path. Marginal costs of natural gas production is approximately 4 USD/MMBtu on average, so I would look this price as an equilibrium price and trade accordingly. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working […]