Baltic Dry Index Falls 5.1% To 2018
It just keeps going lower….if it continues for a just a couple days it will look as a rerun of a BDI performance as recession started. And we all know what happened than… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Archive for the ‘Markets’ Category
346 Tons Of Gold On BIS Balance Sheet
The big news point of the day is a newly discovered 346 tons of gold on Bank for International Settlements (BIS) balance sheet. The information can be found in a footnote in the BIS’s annual report. Page 163. Included in “Gold bars held at central banks” is SDR8,160.1 million (346 tonnes) (2009: nil) of gold, which theBank held in connection […]
Failed Rebound?
On a completely no news and no economic data day, market tried to stage some kind of a rebound and if we judge by the current situation failed. That tells a lot… Chart 1. S&P 500
Dry Bulk Weekly – July 4, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 8.8% last week; The hardest hit were Panamaxes with 19.6% loss; Supramaxes lost 6.0% ; Handysizes and Capesizes lost 5.4% and 3.3% . It looks like the Baltic Dry Index was not bottoming last week after all. Panamaxes which were more stable sector than the Capsize sector played catchup and collapsed. That was not […]
ECB’s 7-Day Liquidity Tender Erases Yesterday’s Optimism On European Banking Sector Liquidity
From yesterday’s post: The ECB biggest ever liquidity facility – EUR 442 billion one year maturity is coming due tomorrow. To reduce the strain on the banks, ECB introduced 3 month LRTO (Long-Term Refinancing Operation) which banks could use to refinance the maturing facility. The market estimate for the LTRO size was EUR 220 billion – EUR […]
S&P 500 Closes Bellow 1.040 For The First Time Since September 2009
Technicians have drawn the S&P 500 line in the sand at 1.040 points. Every investor noways considers that a critical technical level. It got broken a few times intra-day, but now we have first closing bellow. The next resistance is at 880, if we get three consecutive closings bellow 1.040 that would be my next target. Chart 1. […]
ECB’s LTRO Goes Better Than Expected
The ECB biggest ever liquidity facility – EUR 442 billion one year maturity is coming due tomorrow. To reduce the strain on the banks, ECB introduced 3 month LRTO (Long-Term Refinancing Operation) which banks could use to refinance the maturing facility. The market estimate for the LTRO size was EUR 220 billion – EUR 250 billion. The […]
Nouriel Roubini: Greece’s Best Option Is An Orderly Default
I’ve argued the same thing repeatedly. Financial Times Opinion: Greece’s best option is an orderly default. It is time to recognise that Greece is not just suffering from a liquidity crisis; it is facing an insolvency crisis too. Rating agencies have started to downgrade its public debt to junk level, while spreads on Greek sovereign bonds […]
John P. Hussman Of Hussman Funds On Recession Odds
John P. Hussman of Hussman funds put’s in more words than I, but in principle I couldn’t agree more. It’s a brilliant article, a must read. Recession Warning by John P. Hussman of Hussman funds (www.hussmanfunds.com). Reinhart and Rogoff observe that following systemic banking crises, the duration of housing price declines has averaged roughly six […]
Greece Returns To Financial Markets
I have to ask why? This cannot end well. Finacial TImes story: Greece set to return to finance markets. Greece is preparing a make-or-break return to the financial markets next month as it plans to raise about €4bn in its first borrowing attempt since last month’s bail-out by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. […]
Friday Reading
I already posted links on stories covering same themes, but since I believe they are important, I will do it again. FT Alphaville: The other liquidity strain — in China. FT.com Blogs / Money Supply: ECB and the €442bn question.
ECRI Weekly Index Debate
The usefulness of ECRI weekly leading index is widely debated today. The debate was started by Bank of America Merrill Lynch biased report: ECRI: Not the “Holy Grail”. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates in todays Breakfast with Dave: What is fascinating is how the ECRI, which was celebrated by Wall Street research houses a year ago, […]
FOMC Statement, June 23 2010
Negative tone added to the statement, making a rise in federal funds rate even more distant opportunity. FED Press Release. Economy improving, but the financial conditions less supportive because of developments abroad. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. […]
China / U.S. / U.K. Currency Stand-Off In 1930s
Very interesting comment in the todays Financial Times dealing with the China/U.S./U.K. currency stand-off in 1930s. The roles are a little bit changed but the lessons learnt are interesting in todays context. Finacial Times article: Lessons from the 1930s for a rising renminbi.
Lack Of Conviction
Looks like the markets similar like Belisarius exhibit lack of conviction. Maybe most interesting development is that Baltic Dry Index keeps falling lower and lover. Collapse here could serve as an advance indicator of China and commodity fall-down.. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index Elsewhere not much happening, sort of contemplation surrounds the markets, and when we have nothing negative n the news-flow we move up on no […]