Global Macro Perspectives
U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in June. The consensus was at -0.2%, May reading at 1.2%. Capacity utilization fell, for the first time since the recovery started, to 74.1% in May it was at 74.7%; the consensus was at 74.0%. Chart 1. U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
U.S. producer price index fell 0.5% in June vs. -0.1% consensus and 0.3% fall in May. Food & energy taken out U.S. producer price index rose 0.1% in June. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior reading at 0.2%. Chart 1. U.S. Producer Price Indexes
Down only 0.5%. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Initial jobless claims were reported at 429.000. The consensus was at 445.000, last week revised reading was at 458.000. Lowest reading since July 2008. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
China Q2 GDP growth was reported at 10.3%, slowing down from Q1 growth rate of 11.9%. The slowdown came despite exports were stronger in Q2, meaning internal demand has weakened. Chart 1. China GDP Quarterly Growth¸ Urban fixed assets investments growth rate also slowed down to 23.5%. The May reading was at 25.9%. Chart 2. Fixed Assets Investment Inflationary pressures […]
Crude oil stocks fell 5.1 million barrels for week ending July 9; Gasoline stocks rose 1.6 million barrels; Distillate stocks increased 2.9 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 1.9 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 3.2 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization rose from 89.8% to 90.5%. Highest since January […]
As I wrote in Dry Bulk Weekly it appears that Chinese removal of steel export tax rebates is a complete game changer for the industry. The slowdown in Chinese iron ore imports is easing port congestion which tied approximately 20% of the world fleet a few weeks ago. The port congestion has since then eased by […]
Retail sales fell 0.5% in June . The consensus was at -0.2%, May reading was a decrease of 1.2%. Autos taken out, the figure was a decrease of 0.1%; the consensus was at 0.0%; prior reading at -1.1%. Another disappointment and a confirmation of a economic slowdown coming in the second half of the year. Chart 1. U.S. […]
MBA mortgage applications fell 2.9% for week ending July 9, the prior reading was a rise of 6.7%. Both refinancing index and purchasing index fell 2.9%. Lowest reading for a Purchase Index since 1996. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
U.S. trade balance for April was reported at $-42.3 billion vs. consensus of $-39 billion and April reading of $-40.3 billion. Chart 1. U.S. Trade Balance
Again down… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Interesting paper on HFT : via FT Alphaville: Quant-ifying the HFT effect in stock movements. via Zero Hedge: Scientific Proof That High Frequency Trading Induces Adverse Changes In Market Microstructure And Dynamics, And Puts Market Fairness Under Question.
China new loan issuance for June was at 603 CNY billion. In May the issuance was at 639.4 CNY billion. Chart 1. China New Loans
China trade balance was reported at USD 20.0 billion vs. USD 19.5 billion in May. Export and import growth were running at 43.9 and 34.1 percent. The imports are slowing down, I would say that will mean lower exports further down the road. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 55.8 billion vs. USD 97.4 billion for […]
Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China rose 11.4% in June compared with of 12.4% rise in May. It’s slowing down…I don’t understand spinning this as positive by mainstream media. Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price YoY