Global Macro Perspectives
Technicians have drawn the S&P 500 line in the sand at 1.040 points. Every investor noways considers that a critical technical level. It got broken a few times intra-day, but now we have first closing bellow. The next resistance is at 880, if we get three consecutive closings bellow 1.040 that would be my next target. Chart 1. […]
MBA mortgage applications rose 8.8% for week ending June 25, the prior reading was a decrease of 5.9%. The refinancing index gained 12.6% and is responsible for a composite rise. Purchasing index fell 3.3%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP Employment rose 13,000 in June vs. revised rise of 57,000 in May. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday will be negative, probably missing a -111.000 consensus. Chart 1. ADP Employment
The ECB biggest ever liquidity facility – EUR 442 billion one year maturity is coming due tomorrow. To reduce the strain on the banks, ECB introduced 3 month LRTO (Long-Term Refinancing Operation) which banks could use to refinance the maturing facility. The market estimate for the LTRO size was EUR 220 billion – EUR 250 billion. The […]
Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 52.9 vs. 62.5 consensus and 63.3 reading for May. Ugly looking number. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 0.7% in April; S&P/Case-Shiller 20 HPI composite rose 0.8% in April. Complete surprise, but it will not affect nobody’s expectations as the indexes are lagging three month averages. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
Could not post this yesterday, because of problems at my hosting service caused disruption in Tainted Alpha Blog avilability. My apologies for that. Chicago Fed national activity index is one of the indicators that correctly predicted this ongoing recession. For May it was reported at 0.21, given its positive reading it is not pointing to a double-dip (jet). The next month […]
I’ve argued the same thing repeatedly. Financial Times Opinion: Greece’s best option is an orderly default. It is time to recognise that Greece is not just suffering from a liquidity crisis; it is facing an insolvency crisis too. Rating agencies have started to downgrade its public debt to junk level, while spreads on Greek sovereign bonds […]
John P. Hussman of Hussman funds put’s in more words than I, but in principle I couldn’t agree more. It’s a brilliant article, a must read. Recession Warning by John P. Hussman of Hussman funds (www.hussmanfunds.com). Reinhart and Rogoff observe that following systemic banking crises, the duration of housing price declines has averaged roughly six […]
U.S. personal income rose 0.4% MoM in May vs. 0.5% consensus and revised 0.5% April reading. On YoY level the personal income is up 1.6%. U.S. consumer spending remained rose 0.2% in May vs. 0.1% consensus and 0.o% prior reading. On YoY level the consumer spending is up 4.3%. Chart 1. Personal Income Chart 2. Consumer […]
Bloomberg story: Baosteel Scales Back Expansion Target by 38% as China Seeks Capacity Curbs. China, the biggest steelmaking nation, has pulled back from encouraging mills to get as large as global leader ArcelorMittal as it sought to shutter old plants, curb pollution and power demand. Chinese steelmakers are likely to cut output in the third […]
I have to ask why? This cannot end well. Finacial TImes story: Greece set to return to finance markets. Greece is preparing a make-or-break return to the financial markets next month as it plans to raise about €4bn in its first borrowing attempt since last month’s bail-out by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Micron Technology (MU), Standard Microsystems (SMSC), Zep (ZEP), Barnes & Noble (BKS) Tuesday: Worthington Industries (WOR), General Mills (GIS), Acuity Brands (AYI) Wednesday: American Greetings (AM), Lindsay Corporation (LNN), Christopher & Banks (CBK), Apollo Group (APOL), UniFirst (UNF), Monsanto (MON) Thursday: Methode Electronics (MEI), MSCI (MXB), MSC Industrial Direct (MSM), […]
Baltic dry index fell 7.2% last week; The hardest hit, again, were Capesizes with 13.3% loss; Supramaxes and Handysizes lost 4.9% and 5.2%; Panamaxes gained 2.2% . It looks the baltic dry index is bottoming. The action was in the capesize sector, so Chinese iron ore demand is the game as a consequence of reduced steel margins . Panamax […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.9%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 9.3%. June cargoes are well covered with available vessels, it is hard to expect any meaningful rebound since supply of available vessels is abundant. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes