Global Macro Perspectives
Ouch…. It looks bad on first sight, but when we exclude non-recurring items (SEC settlement, U.K. bank payroll tax) the figure is $2.75. Press release. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) today reported net revenues of $8.84 billion and net earnings of $613 million for its second quarter ended June 30, 2010. Diluted earnings per common share were $0.78 […]
FT.com Opinion Piece: Today’s Keynesians have learnt nothing. Great piece by the world most famous historian. Expansionary policy leads only to increase in debt, inflation and subsequent losses by the creditors. It was said of the Bourbons that they forgot nothing and learned nothing. The same could easily be said of some of today’s latter-day Keynesians. […]
HMI for July came out at 14 vs. downward revised 16 in June. All components were down, most notably traffic of perspective buyers hit 10 vs. 13 in June. Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
Not looking particularly strong… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Number of oil drilling rigs fell for 12 for the week ending July 16, 2010; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 15 rigs in the same time frame. On world scale number of drilling rigs rose for 27 rigs in June. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Texas Instruments (TXN), Ford Motor (F), International Business Machines (IBM) Tuesday: The Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Apple (AAPL), Unitedhealth Group (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK), Pepsico (PEP) Wednesday: U.S. Bancorp (USB), Morgan Stanley (MS), Altria Group (MO), United […]
Baltic dry index fell 9.6% last week; The hardest hit were Capesizes with 20.3% loss; Supramaxes and Handysizes and lost 8.1% and 5.9%; Panamaxes gained 7.6%. Spot cargo demand fell last week, looks like everybody’s playing wait and see game. Nothing that could reverse the losses on the horizon. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 4.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 3.0%. Demand supply balance improved a bit (the number of available vessels fell), but nothing major here. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
We are just 0.2% shy of -10.0% critical level which has historically predicted recession with 100% accuracy. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
U.S. consumer price index fell 0.1% in June, right at the consensus. May reading was at -0.2%. Consumer price index fell less food & energy came out at 0.2%. The consensus was at 0.2%, May reading was at 0.1%. Again, no inflation in sight. Chart 1. Consumer Price Index
Consumer sentiment for July came out at 66.5 vs. 75.0 consensus and 76.0 June reading. Another leading indicator rolling over. Chart 1. University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
And the slide is over… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Working gas in storage rose 78 Bcf from previous week. Right at the consensus; price jumped 6%. Confused. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
Another disappointment of the day: Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index fell to 5.1. The consensus was at 12.0, prior reading at 8.0. Chart 1. Philadelphia Fed Survey – General Business Conditions Index
Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July came out at 5.08 vs. 18.0 consensus and 19.57 prior reading. Big disappointment. Chart 1. Empire State Manufacturing Survey