Global Macro Perspectives
From the Press Release: The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.5 percent in July, although June’s reduction was revised from 1.4 percent to 1.6 percent. The latest improvement raised the SA index from 108.3 (2000=100) in June to 110 in July. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that […]
Durable good orders fell 0.3% in July vs. +2.5% consensus and -1.0% decrease in June. Transportation taken out the figure was a decrease of whopping -3.8% vs. -0.6% fall in June. This is game changing report, it was obvious that consumer demand was weakening and housing is cratering, now we have confirmation that investments are also falling. Big miss […]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July was reported at 0.0 vs. June revised reading of -0.7. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.17. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below–0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has begun. Another indicator pointing […]
(Week Ending August 13, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending August 13 was reported down 10.0%. Prior reading was revised from -9.8% to -10.2%. Contrary to Conference Board LEI, ECRI Weakly Leading Index is pointing to a recession. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index fell 4.0% in June and it is now running at -9.1% YoY. Chart 1. Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.1% in July. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior revised reading was at -0.3%. LEI contrary to ECRI Leading Index is pointing to minimal GDP growth. Chart 1. Conference Board Leading Economic Index
Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index fell to -7.7. The consensus was at +7.0, prior reading at +5.1. Chart 1. Philadelphia Fed Survey – General Business Conditions Index
Initial jobless claims were reported at 500.000. The consensus was at 478.000, last week revised reading was at 488.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
U.S. industrial production rose 1.0% in July. The consensus was at 0.5%, June revised reading at -0.1%. Capacity utilization rose to 74.8% in July vs. 74.1% in June and consensus of 74.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
U.S. producer price index rose 0.2% in July, right at the consensus. June reading was at -0.5%. Food & energy taken out U.S. producer price index rose 0.3% in July. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior reading at 0.1%. Chart 1. U.S. Producer Price Indexes
Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August came out at 7.1 vs. 8.0 consensus and 5.08 prior reading. Again bellow consensus. Chart 1. Empire State Manufacturing Survey
ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending August 6 was reported down 9.8%. Prior reading was at -10.3%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
UOM/Reuters Consumer Sentiment for August came out at 69.6 vs. 69.0 consensus and 66.5 July reading. Chart 1. University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% in July, right at the consensus. June reading was at -0.1%. Consumer price index fell less food & energy came out at 0.1%. The consensus was also at 0.1%, June reading was at 0.2%. Chart 1. U.S. Consumer Price Index
Retail sales rose 0.4% in July . The consensus was at 0.5%, June reading was a decrease of 0.5%. Autos taken out, the figure was an increase of 0.2% right at the consensus. Prior reading at -0.1%. Gains came mostly from a 2.3% increase in gasoline station sales and 1.6 % rise in motor vehicle sales. Also […]