Global Macro Perspectives
Nonfarm payrolls fell 54.000 in August. The consensus was at -105.000, revised reading for June was a decrease of 54.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.6% vs prior reading of 9.5% and consensus of 9.6%. Average weekly hours worked for private employees rose 0.3% to 34.2. Positive surprise. Chart 1. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate […]
(For August 2010) Monster Employment Index fell to 136 in August; July reading was at 138. Charts 1. Monster Employment Index
(For July 2010) I forgot to post this yesterday. U.S. construction spending fell 1.0% MoM in July vs. -0.6% consensus and revised 0.8% fall in June. On year level we are at -10.7%. Lowest level in 10 years. Chart 1. U.S. Construction Spending
(For The Week Ending August 27, 2010) Initial jobless claims were reported at 472.000. The consensus was at 475.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 478.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For August 2010) U.S. total motor vehicle sales for August fell 0.48 million units to 11.46 million SAAR. Market share of domestic producers fell 1.8% to 75.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Chart 2. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Domestic vs. Foreign Market Share
ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 56.3 vs. prior reading of 55.5 and consensus of 52.8. Strange. Somebody knew… Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia and Empire State Manufacturing Surveys
Till we get the actual number…. The consensus is at 52.8. Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia and Empire State Manufacturing Surveys
(For August 2010) ADP Employment fell 10,000 in August vs. revised rise of 37,000 in July. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday will be negative, probably missing a -80.000 consensus. Chart 1. ADP Employment
(For August 2010) Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 34,768 in August vs. 41,676 in July. Chart 1. Challenger Job-Cut Report
Integral version. In general, something for everybody. Looks like it puzzled the markets, but I think the focus tomorrow will be on FOMC unwillingness (for the time being) to “resume large-scale asset purchases”. My take: Economic outlook. Little bit too positive in my view. In the economic forecast prepared for the AugustFOMC meeting, the staff lowered its projection for theincrease […]
(For August 2010) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 56.7 vs. 57.0 consensus and 62.3 July reading. Chart 1.
Excellent opinion piece in todays Financial Times by Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart. Carmen Reinhart co-authored with Kenneth S. Rogoff now famous study on public and foreign debt: Growth in a Time of Debt. Finacial Times link (subscription required): Beware those who think the worst is past. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, painted a […]
U.S. personal income rose 0.2% in July vs. 0.3% consensus and revised 0.0% June reading. On YoY level the personal income is up 3.0%. U.S. consumer spending also rose 0.4% in July vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.o% prior reading. On YoY level the consumer spending is up 3.4%. U.S. personal savings as a percentage of […]
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending August 20 was reported down 9.9%. Prior reading was revised (again) from -10.0% to -10.1%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
I was unable to post this on Friday…so I’m posting it now, just for the record… U.S. GDP Q2 growth was revised from 2.4% to 1.6%. The consensus was at 1.3%, Q1 reading was at 2.7%. Revision not as big as expected, but the slowdown is materializing in official data. Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent […]