October 23rd, 2009 by Belisarius
Markets ended lower despite existing home sales data (thanks to tax credit and seasonal adjustment looking exceptionally good) which came at 5.57 million at annual rate vs. 5.35 consensus and 5.1 in August. Blomberg story: U.S. Economy: Existing Home Sales Surge on Rush for Tax Credit. Median home price fell 1.4% on monthly level despite reduced share of distressed sale of 29% versus 50% levels earlier this year. The question here is weather we will see cash-for-clunkers winding down effect here or extension of the program. My guess is extension of some kind.
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October 22nd, 2009 by Belisarius
hina GDP grew 8.9% in third quarter vs. 9% consensus. All risky assets headed lower on the news, U.S. dollar higher. Puzzled, makes no sense. Bloomberg explanation: China’s Economy Grows 8.9%, Fastest Pace in a Year.
The media focus is on stimulus, monetary expansion. Chinese officials have already addressed those issues, at least verbal. In my view the depressed exports; over capacity; real estate bubble; credit boom are big issues and I am little bit skeptic on can China ride out of this recession smoothly. Correction today in Asia on concern of stimulus withdrawal.
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October 21st, 2009 by Belisarius
As I wrote before Wells Fargo earnings came better than expected. I gave gone through the material and I have to say the the way management presents the data gave me a sort of the confidence that they know their job, but when I reviewed the details the seen has only scared me.
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October 20th, 2009 by Belisarius
Housing starts rose 0.5% in September to 590k units vs. 615k consensus representing 2.8% growth. August data was revised down from 598k units reported last month to 587k units. If we take this into account the consensus was projecting 4.7 increase; and the reported figure was 0.5%. Bloomberg link: Housing Starts in U.S. Increased Less Than Forecast.
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October 19th, 2009 by Belisarius
With 85% reporting companies beating consensus, skeptical as I am it , I think that relates more to low expectations more than companies outperforming. It’s my impression that we have bubbles forming in many market segment, but no catalyst to reverse the process. Given the many times stated will by major central bankers to extend low interest rate environment the price disruptions could continue for some time and even higher levels.
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October 19th, 2009 by Belisarius
Important U.S. earnings this week:
* Monday: Apple, Texas Instruments
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October 16th, 2009 by Belisarius
* -$0.26 vs. -$0.13 EPS LPS
* Large and incensing provisions, but lower than at JPM
Citi looks even worse after this.
Press release.
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October 16th, 2009 by Belisarius
A wave of reckless optimism has taken over the financial world. We saw new highs in U.S. equities yesterday and European today. As I wrote before “better taken expected” has taken over the investor hart and souls. It doesn’t feel rational for me so I will pass on being long for the time being.
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October 15th, 2009 by Belisarius
Nice introduction to bank stock analysis. Street Capitalist link: My Interview with the Bank Analyst.
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October 15th, 2009 by Belisarius
Just to touch briefly yesterdays retail sales. The figure was -1.5%; 0.5% ex autos vs. -2.1% and 0.3% consensus. Prior readings were 2.7% and 1.1%. Nothing to cheer here, most important aspect for me is the consequences of government stimulus withdrawal. The additional demand just evaporates.
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October 15th, 2009 by Belisarius
Interesting action with the VIX yesterday, break out to the 52 weeks low and then rebound to the upside. Looks someone was buying insurance after the run yesterday.
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October 14th, 2009 by Belisarius
EPS of $0.82 vs. $0.51 consensus. Main contribution came from fixed income revenues; half of the net income coming from investment banking; retail services & credit card divisions suffering. Earnings presentation.
Solid performance; excellent capital ratios.
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October 14th, 2009 by Belisarius
hina’s export decline slowed to 15.2% YoY in September from 23.4% in August and 21% consensus. Positive surprise, but still far away from +25% pre-crisis levels. As usual equities and commodities are trading higher on the news; U.S. dolar lower.
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October 13th, 2009 by Belisarius
The earnings announcement stream continues. Intel posted EPS of $0.33 vs $0.28 consensus. Revenue at $9.4 billion down 7.8% compared with the same period last year. The consensus was at $9.06 billion. More from Reuters: Intel quarterly results beat Street. The earnings season is proving to be what I wrote earlier “better than expected” earnings on cost cutting. It can’t go on indefinitely, we have to see some growth in revenue.
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October 13th, 2009 by Belisarius
Markets are feeling nervous, I’m feeling nervous. VIX is at the lower bottom of the short term range, it looks it could stay in the range. Gold is hitting new highs today, it’s overbought a little, maybe some consolidation there needed if it is bound to stay at today’s levels.
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