November 5th, 2009 by Belisarius
A lot of action on the earnings losses and economic announcements front. So, let’s start. Initial jobless claims came at 512k vs. 523k consensus and 530k the week before. Finally some improvement, but still at some 170k job losses a month.
Markets, off-course, cheered the data. All major indexes ended with nice gains of a 2% and more. We will see if the positive action continues after the tomorrows unemployment figures. Could be, consensus on non-farm payrolls is pretty low at 175k job loses, I think we could manage to beet that.
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November 4th, 2009 by Belisarius
Nothing new material in the statement. FED press release.
Higlihts:
Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.
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November 4th, 2009 by Belisarius
…at least for one trading session. Belisarius was occupied with his new firm in last few days so his blog suffered a little; now he’s back fully operational. Back to the theme; yesterday someone took a large position in gold and surprisingly moved the precious metal up on a positive dollar day. Media and blogosphere are full of various theories and reasons for the action. From India’s central bank buying MMF gold (Bloomberg story: IMF Sells Gold to India, First Sale in Nine Years) to “informed” buyer taking the position ahead of today FED interest rate decision/statement and rumors of big financial institution in trouble.
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November 3rd, 2009 by Belisarius
We have had a nice shoot up yesterday after the ISM Manufacturing Index release, but the gains flattened during the day. The ISM Manufacturing Index came at 55.7 vs. 53 consensus and 52.6 last month. It’s a diffusion index, I don’t care really, but markets react sometimes.
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November 2nd, 2009 by Belisarius
Important U.S. earnings this week:
* Monday: Sysco (SYY), Loews (L), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Consolidated Edison (ED), Ford Motor (F)
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October 30th, 2009 by Belisarius
Markets on the on the edge of the cliff. I’m unsettled because I managed only to re-initiate my long USO 39 January puts position, didn’t re-initiate the similar SPY position. Risk control, sometimes you miss on lice profits. I’ll wait with that, I don’t like to rush into position after such run.
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October 30th, 2009 by Belisarius
I felt yesterday like someone jumped out of the boy and shouted: ” you’re punk’d.!”. Some thing like in this video (fast forward to 1.38):
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October 29th, 2009 by Belisarius
U.S. GDP growth for the third quarter came out at 3.5% vs. 3% consensus. Surprise to the upside. Bloomberg story: Economy in U.S. Expands for First Time in More Than a Year . Interesting day ahead, we will see how the (U.S.) markets react
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October 29th, 2009 by Belisarius
One of my favorite investment themes is shorting the long end of the treasury curve. Something similar (just a institutional version) are playing prominent investors (ex. and current hedge fund managers) like Julian Robertson, Jim Rogers, David Einhorn and others.
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October 28th, 2009 by Belisarius
Big move down on all risky assets. Possibly a serious testing phase for equity markets ahead. U.S. dollar trying to escape recent down trend, treasuries up. Same story as in recent months but on the opposite side.
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October 28th, 2009 by Belisarius
I bought USO and SPY ATM January puts today. Feels like we have some weakness coming. Most of the better-than-expected results are out; economic data coming is sluggish (except maybe U.S. Q3 GDP reading tomorrow, but here I view the expectations high, so I’ll take the risk); and it feels extending stimulus (read: budget deficit widening) would be negatively viewed by the FX and fixed income markets so U.S. government would likely be cautious with the measures it is undertaking. So new stimulus fueled move is unlikely.
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October 27th, 2009 by Belisarius
Consumer confidence unexpectedly drops to 47.7 vs. 53.1 last month and 54 consensus. The streak of negative signs (just signs for the time being) continues.
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October 27th, 2009 by Belisarius
ome prices rose in August for a third consecutive month. Case-Shiller composite-10 index rose 1.3% in August to 157.93 with the composite-20 index up 1.2% to 146.00. Bloomberg story: Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rise for Third Month.
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October 26th, 2009 by Belisarius
I don’t like the hype that follows Nouriel Roubini; ha had a strike of luck (mostly because he was sticking to his same forecasts for years) and now the media grants him excess attention. Never mind, the point I am getting to, is that his thoughts on commodities and economy are almost identical to concepts I am writing about on my blog. Indexuniverse.com interview: Nouriel Roubini: Big Crash Coming.
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October 26th, 2009 by Belisarius
mportant U.S. earnings this week:
* Monday: Corning (GLW), Verizon (VZ), Baidu (BIDU)
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