Global Macro Perspectives
Irish and Portuguese 10 year government bond yield spread versus same maturity German keep on rising. Latest rumors are that tha Anglo Irish creditors will not be paid off in full. Ireland auctioned February 2011 and April 2010 bills today; bit to cover for February bills fell from 9.4 times on previous auction to 4.1 times; bit to cover […]
(For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) MBA mortgage applications fell 1.4% , prior reading was a decrease of 8.9.%. Refinance index fell 0.9%; Purchase index fell 3.3%. Purchase index which is supposed to be leading home sales – pathetic in one word. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
In last 7 sessions Baltic Dry Index declined 14.5%. This is little bit surprising since with the start of new quarter lower iron ore price kicks in. Maybe holiday season (Mid Autumn Festival – from September 22 to September 24 and National Day – from October 1 to October 7)… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
New highs today for Irish and Portuguese 10 year government bond yield spread versus same maturity German. Greece yields off recent highs. ECB is not managing to put this under control. Chart 1. Ireland vs. Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Spread Chart 2. Portugal vs. Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Spread Chart 3. Greece vs. Germany […]
They admitted only that the pace of recovery has slowed in recent months and introduced a hint of additional measures. Like I expected only the weakening economic activity is not fully addressed. Unexpectedly a fear of deflation and a will to fight it is introduced into statement (in two instances), in my view completely off the mark. The main […]
I would say that the market (equity especial) is pricing further QE measures being announced today. Since there was some reservation and conflicting views during the last FOMC meeting on the reinvestment of agency and MBS debt and economic data is not deteriorating as fast as in anticipation of previous meeting, the odds that FED will introduce additional QE today are slim, in […]
(For August) U.S. housing starts in August rose 10.5% to 598.000 vs. revised (5.000 lower) 541.000 July reading. The consensus was at 550.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are up 2.9% Chart 1. U.S. Housing Starts Number of building permits issued in the U.S. in August rose 1.8% to 569.000. The consensus was at 560.000. […]
(For July 2010) Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index fell 3.1% in July and it is now running at -7.2% YoY. Chart 1. Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research announced today said that through in business activity in U.S. occurred in June 2009 making the and of the recession that began in December 2007. From the press release. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At […]
(For September) Housing Market Index for September came out at 13 vs. 13 in August. Consensus was at 14. All components unchanged except traffic of perspective buyers which edged 1 point lower. Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
Irish 10 year government yield spread versus same maturity German issue rose today to new highs. Both Barclays Capital and Goldman Sachs issued their reports in the last couple of days claiming it is not clear whether Ireland can finance its budget deficit without EU/IMF help. On Friday ECB intervened buying Irish government bonds. FT story: ECB intervenes in […]
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 277,000 carloads, up 5.4% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 9.7% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -9.0% (due to Labor day). Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total
Baltic dry index fell 10.7% last week; Capesize Index was down 13.7%; Panamax Index also fell 13.7%; Supramax Indexes fell 1.7%; Handysize Index rose 0.6%, China iron ore stockpiles moved sharply higher offsetting last week’s inventory draw. We will probably see increased demand with the start of new quarter and lower iron ore benchmark prices. Not much happening […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.1%. No improvements in supply/demand balance. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL), FactSet Research Systems (FDS), Lennar (LEN), Discover Financial Services (DFS), Park Electrochemical (PKE) Tuesday: Adobe Systems (ADBE), Progress Software (PRGS), Cintas (CTAS), ConAgra Foods (CAG), Carnival (CCL), AutoZone (AZO), Analogic (ALOG) Wednesday: Darden Restaurants (DRI), Jefferies (JEF), General Mills (GIS), CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath & Beyond […]