Global Macro Perspectives
This is an excellent book on history of financial speculation. Edward Chancellor focuses on speculative manias: from the ones in Rome, through tulip mania in Holland to Japanese bubble in 1980s. Book is interesting and relative easy to read. Main line of thought which probably inspired the author is that investment bubble never change, but the majority of the […]
(For The Week Ending October 29, 2010) Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 3.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 1.7%. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
(For The Week Ending October 23, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 302,855 carloads, up 9.6% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 5.4% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.3%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads
(For October 2010) October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading was reported at 67.7 vs. 68.0 consensus and 67.9 prior October reading. Unchanged level of confidence. Chart 1. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment vs. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For October 2010) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 60.6. The consensus was at 58.0, prior reading at 60.4. Regional manufacturing surveys signal improvements in October. Using rule of thumb I would say that industrial production in October will be unchanged. Chart 1. ISM vs. Chicago PMI and Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For Q3 2010) U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.0%, right at consensus. Q2 reading was at +1.7%. This is a big argument against new massive round of QE. Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP Growth
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 71 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 73 Bcf. Storage just keeps on rising futures more and more oversold. Long. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 5.0 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were down 4.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 1.6 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.7 million barrels; Other oils stocks rose 0.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 0.6 million barrels higher than the week […]
(For The Week Ending October 23, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 434.000. The consensus was at 455.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 455.000. Again moving lover, we will see if it holds. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For September) U.S. new home sales in September were reported at 307.000 SAAR, the consensus was at 300.000 SAAR, prior reading was at 288.000 SAAR. Chart 1. U.S. New Home Sales SAAR
Initially Greece planed a under 3% deficit, then they were reporting 6% , it was 12 % a month ago, and now its 15%. Bloomberg story: Greek Bonds Tumble as Government Says Tax Revenue Falling Short. Spreads wider… Chart 1. Greece vs. Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Spread
(For September 2010) Durable good orders rose 3.3% in September vs. 2.0% consensus and -1.0% decrease in August (revised upwards from -1.3%). Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Transportation taken out the figure was a decrease of 0.8% vs. 1.9% rise in August (revised upwards from 1.9%). The consensus was at +0.5%. Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ex. […]
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) MBA mortgage applications rose 3.2%; Prior reading was a decrease of 10.5.%; On year level MBA Basic Index is up 47.4%. Chart 1. Mortgage Bankers Association Basic Index SA MBA Refinancing index rose 3.0%; Prior reading was a decrease of 11.2.%; On year level MBA Refinancing Index is up 96.6%. Chart […]
The newspaper with the best track record on guessing (or maybe pre-announcing) FED policy changes reports that the QE 2 size will be smaller than market expects. The central bank is likely to unveil a program of U.S. Treasury bond purchases worth a few hundred billion dollars over several months, a measured approach in contrast to purchases of […]
(For August 2010) FHFA Purchase Only House Price Index rose 0.4% in August. Housing index data is complete now, feels slightly negative but nothing alarming. Chart 1. FHFA Purchase Only House Price Index vs. CoreLogic Home Price Index, Radar Logic Composite 25 – 28 Day, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index – Composite 20