Global Macro Perspectives
The usefulness of ECRI weekly leading index is widely debated today. The debate was started by Bank of America Merrill Lynch biased report: ECRI: Not the “Holy Grail”. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates in todays Breakfast with Dave: What is fascinating is how the ECRI, which was celebrated by Wall Street research houses a year ago, […]
Crude oil stocks rose 2.0 million barrels for week ending June 18; Gasoline stocks fell 0.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks increased 0.3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 1.1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.7 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization rose from 87.9% to 89.4%. Crude oil and […]
Negative tone added to the statement, making a rise in federal funds rate even more distant opportunity. FED Press Release. Economy improving, but the financial conditions less supportive because of developments abroad. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. […]
New home sales fell 33.0% in May to 300.000, the consensus was at 400.000, prior reading was at 504.000. The lowest reading since 1963. The first home-buyer tax credit expiry is a reason for a this kind of drop, the effect was already seen with cash for clunkers program. A disastrous report. Chart 1. New Home Sales Source: Blytic.com
Very interesting comment in the todays Financial Times dealing with the China/U.S./U.K. currency stand-off in 1930s. The roles are a little bit changed but the lessons learnt are interesting in todays context. Finacial Times article: Lessons from the 1930s for a rising renminbi.