Global Macro Perspectives
Markets are feeling nervous, I’m feeling nervous. VIX is at the lower bottom of the short term range, it looks it could stay in the range. Gold is hitting new highs today, it’s overbought a little, maybe some consolidation there needed if it is bound to stay at today’s levels.
This week could definitively determine the route U.S. equities are going to take. Tuesday: Procter & Gamble and Intel; Wednesday: JP Morgan, Thursday: Goldman Sachs and Citigroup; Friday: Bank of America and General Electric. I suspect banks will report something similar to previous quarter; but the market impact would not be so profound. I still believe that the banking crisis will have round two, but not at this moment, probably in few quarters. Interesting Bloomberg article today on bank earnings composition. Bloomberg story: Writedowns on Mortgage Servicing Make Even JPMorgan Vulnerable . We will see when the reality catches up with accounting.
Lots of attention today to the declining dollar. Interesting article on that theme in the WSJ by David Malpass from the Encima Global LLC. WSJ link: The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity.
A lot of economic data coming from the US today. Producer price index coming at 1.7% vs. 0.8% consensus on the monthly level and -4.3% vs. -5.3% consensus on year level. Surprise to the positive side. Retail sales were up 2.7% vs. 1.9% consensus in August, taking out Autos and Gas +0.6%. Also, positive, but definitely not breath taking.