Global Macro Perspectives
Nonfarm payrolls fell 125.000 in June. The consensus was at -125.000, revised reading for May was an increase of 433.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.5% vs prior reading of 9.7% and consensus of 9.8%. Nothing special in the report, meaningful new hiring nowhere to be found. Chart 1. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls increased 162.000 in March. The consensus was at 200.000, revised reading for March was -14.000. The unemployment rate remained at 9.7%. Below consensus reading, despite census hiring. Weather impact was 100.000, so “core” +60.000 is not much of an improvement. Chart 1. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
As I expected non-farm payrolls came out yesterday at -36.000 for February vs. -50.000 consensus and a revised -26.000 figure for January. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.7% vs. 9.8% consensus. We could say that the job losses for U.S. economy are approaching its end. Chart 1. Unemployment Rate & Non-Farm Payrolls Change
Well, I was wrong. Nonfarm payrolls for December were reported at -85.000 vs 10.000 consensus and 4.000 the month before (revised up 15.000). Unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0%. Average hourly earnings was up 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus and 0.1% in November. Average workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours. A negative surprise. Weak negative reaction […]