Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic dry index rose 8.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 8.5%; Panamax Index rose 9.4%; Supramax Index increased 5.9%; Handysize Index was up 2.3%.
Iron ore and steel prices fell on high inventory (iron ore inventory near record high; steel inventory record high). Thermal coal inventory data not released.
Baltic dry index fell 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 8.8%; Panamax Index fell 9.6%; Supramax Index rose 9.3%; Handysize Index was up 2.7%.
Iron ore and steel inventory at new all time high. Thermal coal inventory rising fast.
This could be a canary in a coal mine for Chinese economy…
Baltic dry index rose 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.2%; Panamax Index rose 23.7%; Supramax Index increased 11.9%; Handysize Index rose 3.2%.
Shipping rates are rising after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets
Stockpiles of iron ore unchanged at record high, iron ore price rising. Steel inventories are going vertical and moving towards record highs. Thermal coal stockpiles ticked upwards.
I would expect further gains in rates because of low level from which the after holiday recovery started. Overall stockpile data paints kind of worrying picture of Chinese economy.
Longer term – I expect that rates will be on average bellow break-even (2.200 on BDI) for next couple of years on oversupply of vessels.
Baltic dry index rose 12.9% last week; Capesize Index was up 13.5%; Panamax Index rose 20.2%; Supramax Index increased 3.9%; Handysize Index rose 0.9%.
Shipping rates rose after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets
Stockpiles of iron ore, steel and coke are rising in-sync with their respected prices. Buyers probably stockpiling in fear of even higher prices.
I would expect further gains in rates; Still keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
Baltic dry index fell 8.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 5.0%; Panamax Index rose 0.8%; Supramax Index decreased 9.8%; Handysize Index fell 10.9%.
Stockpile data was not reported last week because Chinese holidays. Iron ore price fell 4%.
We could see some improvement after the lunar new year; Keeping close watch on Egypt developments.