Global Macro Perspectives
(For September 2010) China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI rose from 51.7 to 53.8. Both China PMI’s suggest that China industrial production figures for September will improve a bit. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI; HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI; China Industrial Production […]
(For September 2010) HSBC/Markit China PMI rose from 49.4 to 52.9. It appears that China industrial production figures for September will improve a bit. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI; HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI; China Industrial Production Growth
(For August 2010) Industrial production in China rose 13.9% y-o-y in August from 13.4% in July. The consensus was at 13.0%. Chart 1. China Industrial Production
Industrial production growth in China fell to 13.4% in July from 13.7% in June. The consensus was also at 13.4%. Slowing down… Chart 1. China Industrial Production
China Q2 GDP growth was reported at 10.3%, slowing down from Q1 growth rate of 11.9%. The slowdown came despite exports were stronger in Q2, meaning internal demand has weakened. Chart 1. China GDP Quarterly Growth¸ Urban fixed assets investments growth rate also slowed down to 23.5%. The May reading was at 25.9%. Chart 2. Fixed Assets Investment Inflationary pressures […]
Industrial production growth in China fell to 16.5% in May from 17.8% in April. The consensus was at 17.0%. Inventory adjustment has ran its course; export demand could be weaker in the second half of the year; both setting path to moderation in industrial production. Chart 1. China Industrial Production
As usual all the data from China cones at the same time. So, let’s start. In short: China trade balance for April was marginally positive, but in my opinion the China ability to run large trade surplussed is lost and will not return in short term. Implications are diverse, maybe most important the quantity of […]
China consumer prices rose 2.7% in February vs. consensus of 2.5% and 1.5% in January. In the same time China producer prices rose 5.4% vs. consensus of 5.1% and 4.3% in January. This obviously is starting to represent a problem for The Peoples Bank of China as CPI this high brings real interest rates to […]
Asian markets bounced on China industrial production figures. Apparently China’s factory output rose 19.2% in November vs. 18.2% consensus. Exports are running at -1.2% yoy, imports at +26.7% yoy. CPI at 0.6% yoy in November vs. -0.5% yoy in October. PPI rebounded from -5.8% in October to -2.1% in November YoY. New loans at Rmb295bn […]
A lot of economic announcements from China today. So, let’s start. China’s industrial production rose 16.1% in October from a year before following 13.9% rise in September. The export decline slowed to 13.8% in October (year-on-year). If we adjust for holidays, it was down only 9.1% . The trade surplus rose to 23.99 billion USD […]
New highs everywhere, but the feeling, at least for me is unsettling. Setting aside my skeptical mind, looks we could fly even higher. Still waiting for the right point to initiate short SPY position.
Today’s news from China was taken by the media as a positive surprise. China’s industrial production rose 12.3% yoy. New lending was at 60.1 billion USD up 15.3% mom and 51.1% yoy. M2 rose 28.5% in August. Everything is blooming. On the other side. Exports on the other side fell 23.4% in August yoy. I wonder who is buying the stuff they are producing and how long can this last?