Global Macro Perspectives
Intriguing article by Financial Times: Property tax offers path to Chinese reforms. To sum up. Chinese government is thinking on introducing a property tax to rein on real-estate speculation. China will start to introduce some form of annual tax on residential property in the coming months. If that does happen – and it is still […]
China fixed asset investments rose 25.9% in May; the consensus was at 25.7%, April reading was 26.1%. Real-estate accounted for 46.2% of fixed asset investments. Scary. Chart 1. China Fixed Assets Investment
All of China monetary aggregates rose in May: M0 was up 15.3%; M1 was up 29.9%; M2 was up 21.0%. New loan issuance was also strong (up 21.5% YoY). If they don’t tighten fast, they will miss the opportunity…and the bubble bursts in an ugly way. Chart 1. China Monetary Aggregates Chart 2. China New Loans
Industrial production growth in China fell to 16.5% in May from 17.8% in April. The consensus was at 17.0%. Inventory adjustment has ran its course; export demand could be weaker in the second half of the year; both setting path to moderation in industrial production. Chart 1. China Industrial Production
CPI was up 3.1% vs. 3.0% consensus and 2.8% reading in April. PPI was up 7.1% vs. 6.8% consensus and same April reading. The prices are rising despite lower crude oil and commodity prices. The mail driver was rise in food prices. PPI / CPI gap widening putting pressure on corporate margins. Chart 1. Producer & Consumer Price […]
Working gas in storage rose 99 Bcf from previous week. The natural gas price got a little ahead of itself on drilling ban. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
U.S. trade balance for April was reported at $-40.3 billion vs. consensus of $-41 billion and a March reading of $-40.4 billion. Chart 1. U.S. Trade Balance
Initial jobless claims were reported at 456.000. The consensus was at 448.000, last week revised reading was at 459.000. It just doesn’t go down… Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
China trade balance was reported at USD 19.5 billion vs. USD 8.2 billion consensus and USD 1.7 billion in April. Export and import growth was running at 48.5 and 48.3 percent; Exports beat the consensus by 15% margin. Good numbers, but I suspect that going further into the year we will deterioration in trade balance as global […]
Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China rose 12.4% in May compared with record reading of 12.8% in April and 12% consensus. Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price YoY
Crude oil stocks fell 1.8 million barrels for week ending June 4; Gasoline stocks remained flat; Distillate stocks increased 1.8 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 1.2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 0.4 million barrels lower than the week before. Refinery utilization rose from 87.5% to 89.1%. Implied demand flat. Crude oil […]
MBA mortgage applications fell 12.2% for week ending June 4, the prior reading was an increase of 0.9%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Financial Times Links: Fredriksen explores other waters; Fredriksen poised to swoop on ailing groups. Probably most famous shipping tycoon shares his views on market outlook. Mr. Fredriksen famous on building Frontline, world largest tanker company, sold most of his shipping assets (currently he holds only stakes in Frontline (Tanker), Golden Destiny (dry bulk) and Golar […]
Little late…but better late then never… Equities Only extremely favorable economic data could change the negative trend established. This is highly unlikely. So I would say we will soon see S&P 500 at 900. On a macro level, the stimulus is wearing off, politicians and central bankers are not ready to continue with loose fiscal an monetary policies, just the opposite, austerity is […]
Belisarius was mentally away from the market as he was taking an industry exam… He is sorry for wasting half a year on that, but that’s a thing of a past now… Thanks to my much relaxed time schedule, the TaintedAlpha.com Blog will have receive some new and improved content and features in following weeks. Returning to the markets. Things don’t look good. The […]