Global Macro Perspectives
The usefulness of ECRI weekly leading index is widely debated today. The debate was started by Bank of America Merrill Lynch biased report: ECRI: Not the “Holy Grail”. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates in todays Breakfast with Dave: What is fascinating is how the ECRI, which was celebrated by Wall Street research houses a year ago, […]
Crude oil stocks rose 2.0 million barrels for week ending June 18; Gasoline stocks fell 0.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks increased 0.3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 1.1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.7 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization rose from 87.9% to 89.4%. Crude oil and […]
Negative tone added to the statement, making a rise in federal funds rate even more distant opportunity. FED Press Release. Economy improving, but the financial conditions less supportive because of developments abroad. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. […]
New home sales fell 33.0% in May to 300.000, the consensus was at 400.000, prior reading was at 504.000. The lowest reading since 1963. The first home-buyer tax credit expiry is a reason for a this kind of drop, the effect was already seen with cash for clunkers program. A disastrous report. Chart 1. New Home Sales Source: Blytic.com
Very interesting comment in the todays Financial Times dealing with the China/U.S./U.K. currency stand-off in 1930s. The roles are a little bit changed but the lessons learnt are interesting in todays context. Finacial Times article: Lessons from the 1930s for a rising renminbi.
Existing home sales fell 2.2% to 5.66 million SAAR. Consensus was at 6.2 million. A big miss. Total housing inventory is flat at 8.3 months cover. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales
Looks like the markets similar like Belisarius exhibit lack of conviction. Maybe most interesting development is that Baltic Dry Index keeps falling lower and lover. Collapse here could serve as an advance indicator of China and commodity fall-down.. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index Elsewhere not much happening, sort of contemplation surrounds the markets, and when we have nothing negative n the news-flow we move up on no […]
Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index rose 1.7% in April and it is now running at -16.4% YoY. Chart 1. Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index
Number of oil drilling rigs rose for 13 for the week ending June 18, 2010; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 1 rig in the same time frame. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count ose
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: CKE Restaurants (CKR), Sonic (SONC), Herman Miller (MLHR), Palm (PALM) Tuesday: Walgreen (WAG), Red Hat (RHT), HB Fuller (FUL), Gerber Scientific (GRB), Stanley (SXE), Jefferies Group (JEF), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Commercial Metals Company (CMC), Carnival (CCL), Apogee Enterprises (APOG), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Progress Software (PRGS) Wednesday: Nike (NKE), CarMax […]
Baltic dry index fell 18.1% last week; The hardest hit, again, were Capesizes with 26.7% loss. Panamaxes lost 11.3% ; Supramaxes and Handysizes lost 7.4% and 6.5%. China and Taiwan were on holiday from Monday to Wednesday, seasonal weakness and new-buildings hitting the markets all contributed to the dry freight rates falling. Will we have more than a seasonal weakness remains to […]
Everybody looking only on the China central bank announcement on yuan flexibility. My take, it will prove to be a fake and even contrarian indicator. Media all over the story. Exchange rate didn’t move, non-deliverable futures did, one year pricing a big 2.8%. Yeah, a 2.8% move makes a difference. Bloomberg story on the aspects of the announcement: China’s Hu […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 5.9%. Steady supply of vessel keeps rates low, and the market action is slow. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Working gas in storage rose 87 Bcf from previous week. Supply still strong. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
Initial jobless claims were reported at 472.000. The consensus was at 450.000, last week revised reading was at 456.000. If we combine this with recent bleak readings for leading unemployment indicators, it looks real bad. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims