Global Macro Perspectives
Could not post this yesterday, because of problems at my hosting service caused disruption in Tainted Alpha Blog avilability. My apologies for that. Chicago Fed national activity index is one of the indicators that correctly predicted this ongoing recession. For May it was reported at 0.21, given its positive reading it is not pointing to a double-dip (jet). The next month […]
I’ve argued the same thing repeatedly. Financial Times Opinion: Greece’s best option is an orderly default. It is time to recognise that Greece is not just suffering from a liquidity crisis; it is facing an insolvency crisis too. Rating agencies have started to downgrade its public debt to junk level, while spreads on Greek sovereign bonds […]
John P. Hussman of Hussman funds put’s in more words than I, but in principle I couldn’t agree more. It’s a brilliant article, a must read. Recession Warning by John P. Hussman of Hussman funds (www.hussmanfunds.com). Reinhart and Rogoff observe that following systemic banking crises, the duration of housing price declines has averaged roughly six […]
U.S. personal income rose 0.4% MoM in May vs. 0.5% consensus and revised 0.5% April reading. On YoY level the personal income is up 1.6%. U.S. consumer spending remained rose 0.2% in May vs. 0.1% consensus and 0.o% prior reading. On YoY level the consumer spending is up 4.3%. Chart 1. Personal Income Chart 2. Consumer […]
Bloomberg story: Baosteel Scales Back Expansion Target by 38% as China Seeks Capacity Curbs. China, the biggest steelmaking nation, has pulled back from encouraging mills to get as large as global leader ArcelorMittal as it sought to shutter old plants, curb pollution and power demand. Chinese steelmakers are likely to cut output in the third […]
I have to ask why? This cannot end well. Finacial TImes story: Greece set to return to finance markets. Greece is preparing a make-or-break return to the financial markets next month as it plans to raise about €4bn in its first borrowing attempt since last month’s bail-out by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Micron Technology (MU), Standard Microsystems (SMSC), Zep (ZEP), Barnes & Noble (BKS) Tuesday: Worthington Industries (WOR), General Mills (GIS), Acuity Brands (AYI) Wednesday: American Greetings (AM), Lindsay Corporation (LNN), Christopher & Banks (CBK), Apollo Group (APOL), UniFirst (UNF), Monsanto (MON) Thursday: Methode Electronics (MEI), MSCI (MXB), MSC Industrial Direct (MSM), […]
Baltic dry index fell 7.2% last week; The hardest hit, again, were Capesizes with 13.3% loss; Supramaxes and Handysizes lost 4.9% and 5.2%; Panamaxes gained 2.2% . It looks the baltic dry index is bottoming. The action was in the capesize sector, so Chinese iron ore demand is the game as a consequence of reduced steel margins . Panamax […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.9%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 9.3%. June cargoes are well covered with available vessels, it is hard to expect any meaningful rebound since supply of available vessels is abundant. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Consumer sentiment final reading for June came out at 76.0 vs. 75.5 consensus and same prior estimate. May reading was at 73.6. Chart 1. University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
U.S. GDP growth in Q1 2010 was revised from 3.0% to 2.7%. The consensus was at 3.0%, Q4 reading was at 5.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent Change
I already posted links on stories covering same themes, but since I believe they are important, I will do it again. FT Alphaville: The other liquidity strain — in China. FT.com Blogs / Money Supply: ECB and the €442bn question.
Working gas in storage rose 81 Bcf from previous week. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
Durable good orders fell 1.1% in May vs. -0.5% consensus and 2.9% increase in April. Transportation taken out the figure was an increase of 0.9% vs. 1.0% fall in April. Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation
Initial jobless claims were reported at 457.000. The consensus was at 465.000, last week revised reading was at 476.000. Some relief to the job market, but level still consistent with job losses. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims