Initial Jobless Claims At 454.000; Down 21.000
Initial jobless claims were reported at 454.000. The consensus was at 465.000, last week revised reading was at 475.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Baltic Dry Index Falls 5.1% To 2018
It just keeps going lower….if it continues for a just a couple days it will look as a rerun of a BDI performance as recession started. And we all know what happened than… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
MBA Mortgage Applications Up 6.7%
MBA mortgage applications rose 6.7% for week ending July 7, the prior reading was a rise of 8.8%. The refinancing index gained 9.2% and is responsible for a composite rise. Purchasing index fell 2.0%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
346 Tons Of Gold On BIS Balance Sheet
The big news point of the day is a newly discovered 346 tons of gold on Bank for International Settlements (BIS) balance sheet. The information can be found in a footnote in the BIS’s annual report. Page 163. Included in “Gold bars held at central banks” is SDR8,160.1 million (346 tonnes) (2009: nil) of gold, which theBank held in connection […]
Chinese Steel Mills To Default On Quarterly Iron Ore Contracts
From Metal Bulletin: Quarterly, spot or swap — which iron ore contract to choose? Tom Albanese’s admission that Rio Tinto may abandon quarterly iron ore pricing, should the majority of steel mills default to the spot market, could benefit the emerging market for over-the-counter iron ore swaps. Macquarie Research believes third quarter contract prices will be […]
Failed Rebound?
On a completely no news and no economic data day, market tried to stage some kind of a rebound and if we judge by the current situation failed. That tells a lot… Chart 1. S&P 500
Rig Count Weekly July 5, 2010
Number of oil drilling rigs rose for 4 for the week ending July 2, 2010; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 2 rigs in the same time frame. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
New Week Intro July 5, 2010
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: – Tuesday: Stanley (SXE) Wednesday: Family Dollar Stores (FDO), WD-40 Company (WDFC) Thursday: International Speedway (ISCA), Penford (PENX), Helen of Troy (HELE), A. Schulman (SHLM) Friday: – Important U.S. economic data: Monday: US Holiday (Independence Day) All Markets Closed Tuesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Wednesday: MBA Purchase Applications, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, […]
Dry Bulk Weekly – July 4, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 8.8% last week; The hardest hit were Panamaxes with 19.6% loss; Supramaxes lost 6.0% ; Handysizes and Capesizes lost 5.4% and 3.3% . It looks like the Baltic Dry Index was not bottoming last week after all. Panamaxes which were more stable sector than the Capsize sector played catchup and collapsed. That was not […]
Tanker Weekly – July 4, 2010
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 9.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 8.0%. Dirty rates falling on abundant supply (multiple ships competing for a single cargo), clean rates rebounding on increased hauling of petrochemical cargoes. The drop in demand for crude oil is another factor confirming economic slowdown. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Monthly Strategy – July 2010
Almost unchanged from June. Equities Only extremely favorable economic data could change the negative trend established. This is highly unlikely. So I would say we will soon see S&P 500 at 875. On a macro level, the stimulus is wearing off, politicians and central bankers are not ready to continue with loose fiscal an monetary policies, just the opposite, austerity is the game. […]
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth At -7.7%
A reading of -10.% was historically 100% correct predictor of a recession. At todays level the track record is, if my memory serves right, 7 recession of 8 times reading this low. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
June Nonfarm Payrolls Reported At -125.000 / Unemployment Rate At 9.5%
Nonfarm payrolls fell 125.000 in June. The consensus was at -125.000, revised reading for May was an increase of 433.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.5% vs prior reading of 9.7% and consensus of 9.8%. Nothing special in the report, meaningful new hiring nowhere to be found. Chart 1. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – July 2, 2010
Working gas in storage rose 60 Bcf from previous week. Supply weakening. This could get very interesting soon. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
U.S. Construction Spending Fell 0.2% In May
In May, U.S. construction spending fell 0.2% MoM vs. -0.5% consensus and 2.7% rise in April. On a year level we are at -8.0%. Economic recovery without construction recovering is not the real sustainable recovery. Chart 1. U.S. Construction Spending