Global Macro Perspectives
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 1.7% in May; S&P/Case-Shiller 20 HPI composite rose 1.3% in May. Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 0.5%; Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite also rose 0.5%. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
New home sales rose 23.6% in June to 330.000, the consensus was at 300.000, prior reading (revised downward 33.000) was at 267.000 (!!! worst reading on record). Wondering if they switched 33.000 from May revision to June? Chart 1. New Home Sales
Chicago Fed National Activity Index For June was reported at -0.63 vs. May reading of +0.28. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.05. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below–0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has begun. Report. Led by deterioration in […]
Today’s Financial Times front-page: Germany accused of reneging on bank tests. The tests – designed to restore nervous markets’ faith in European banks, shaken by the near-default of Greece this year – were supposed to be accompanied by full disclosure of each bank’s sovereign debt holdings. But six of the 14 German banks tested – Deutsche Bank, Postbank, […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Lockheed Martin (LMT), AFLAC (AFL), EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (DD), Norfolk Southern (NSC), ACE (ACE), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Tuesday: Corning (GLW), Express Scripts (ESRX), Wednesday: WellPoint (WLP), Praxair (PX), Comcast (CMCSA), General Dynamics (GD), Boeing (BA), Visa (V), ConocoPhillips (COP), Dominion Resources (D), […]
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 11 for the week ending July 23, 2010; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 3 rigs in the same time frame. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Baltic dry index rose 6.2% last week; Capesize Index gained 1.9%; Panamax Index rose 12.9%; Supramax and Handysizes Indexes gained 4.6% and 3.6% respectively. Commodore Research July 21, 2010: One of the most troubling signs in the Chinese economy at the moment is therecent (and relatively long-lasting) decline in steel prices. Steel prices have fallen consistently since theend […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 3.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.6%. Again, soft markets, supply eased a little bit, but still high. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Apparently, out of 91 European Union banks only 7 (seven!!!) have failed the test: Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, Agricultural Bank of Greece SA and five Spanish savings banks. The test points out that the banks that failed the test have combined capital shortfall of 3.5 billion euros ($4.5 billion). What a joke of a […]
We have crossed the -10.0% critical level which has historically predicted recession with 100% accuracy. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Aggregate results of European bank stress tests will be published today at 17.30 CET (Central European Time)/ 11.30 New York time by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors. From then on, individual countries supervisors or banks will publish their results with no exact timeline determined. The test will cover 91 banks in 20 countries, which account for […]
Working gas in storage rose 51 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 51 Bcf. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
U.S. Existing home sales fell 5.1% to 5.37 million units SAAR. Consensus was at 5.1 million. Total housing inventory is at 4.0 million units vs. 3.9 million units in May Months supply rose from 8.3 to 8.9 months. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales Chart 2. Existing Home Sales Inventory & Existing Home Sales Months Supply SAAR
Initial jobless claims were reported at 464.000. The consensus was at 445.000, last week revised reading was at 427.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Crude oil stocks rose 0.4 million barrels for week ending July 16; Gasoline stocks rose 1.1 million barrels; Distillate stocks increased 3.9 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.9 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 5.1 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization rose from 90.5% to 91.5%. Highest since August 2007. Implied […]