Global Macro Perspectives
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 12 for the week ending July 23, 2010; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 10 rigs in the same time frame. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Allergan (AGN), Loews (L) Tuesday: Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Pfizer (PFE), Duke Energy (DUK), Baker Hughes (BHI), Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Emerson Electric (EMR), The Dow Chemical Company (DOW), Marathon Oil (MRO), Mastercard (MA), Sempra Energy (SRE), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Entergy Corporation (ETR), American Tower (AMT), […]
The official China PMI fell from 52.1 to 51.2; The HSBC/Markit PMI fell from 50.4 to 49.4. Reading bellow 50 means contraction. Asian markets up today… Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI / HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI
Baltic dry index rose 7.7% last week; Capesize Index gained 12.5%; Panamax Index rose 11.4%; Supramax and Handysizes Indexes gained 0.9% and 3.3% respectively. Rates are rising a bit as some ship owners choose to anchor their ships rather than lose money on chartering them. Chinese iron ore and steel prices rose last week, bringing some optimism to the markets. […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 7.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 5.5%. Nothing new here…supply overweighting demand. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
ECRI Weekly Leading Index is down 10.7%. Prior reading was at -10.5%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
U.S. GDP Rose 2.4% in Q2 2010. The consensus was at 2.6%, Q1 reading was at 2.7%. Another miss, but not a big one (jet). Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent Change
Another data point pointing to a slowdown…. From the press release: The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 1.4 percent in June, although May’s reduction was revised from 0.6 percent to just 0.1 percent. May and June marked the first back-to-back contractions since March and April 2009. The latest […]
It remains to be seen whether the today’s U.S. GDP reading (for Q2) will flash slowdown, but no doubt remains that this quarter (Q3) will be ugly. Chart 1. Consumer Metrics Institute‘s Growth Index vs. Official Quarterly GDP Growth Rates
Initial jobless claims were reported at 457.000. The consensus was at 460.000, last week revised reading was at 468.000. Again, stubbornly high…. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
This is supposed to be bearish. Chart 1. S&P 500
Crude oil stocks rose 7.3 million barrels for week ending July 16; Gasoline stocks remained unchanged; Distillate stocks increased 0.9 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 9.0 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization fell from 91.5% to 90.6%. Implied crude oil demand was […]
MBA mortgage applications fell 4.4% for week ending July 23, the prior reading was an increase of 7.6%. Refinance index fell 5.9%; Purchase index rose 2.0%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Durable good orders fell 1.0% in June vs. +1.0% consensus and -1.1% increase in May. Transportation taken out the figure was a decrease of 0.6% vs. 0.6% rise in May and +0.4% consensus. Big miss, with no appropriate market reaction. Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation
Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 50.4 vs. 51.0 consensus and 54.3 reading for June. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence