Global Macro Perspectives
And we have QE 1.1. Lite. Direct monetization. Basic money printing. I’m surprised FED reacted so fast. To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities […]
U.S. Non-Farm Productivity fell 0.9% in second quarter. The consensus was at 0.0%, first quarter reading at 2.8%. U.S. Labor Costs rose 0.2% in second quarter vs. 1.5% consensus and -1.3% reading in first quarter. This is highly deflationary. Chart 1. U.S. Non-Farm Productivity Chart 2. Unit Labor Costs
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July was reported at 88.1 vs. consensus of 88.0 and prior reading of 89.0. Readings at this level are consistent with weak recovery/recession. Chart 1. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
U.S. railroads originated 300,292 carloads for the week ending July 30, up 9.4% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 6.4% compared with 5-year average. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total
China trade balance was reported at USD 28.7 billion vs. USD 20.0 billion in June. Export and import growth were running at 38.1 and 22.7 percent. The imports are slowing down, I would say that will mean lower exports further down the road. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 84.5 billion vs. USD 108.0 billion for […]
Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China are up 10.3% YoY in July compared with of 11.4% YoY rise in June. It’s slowing down…down 0.1% MoM. Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price YoY
We have a slow day today with no economic data in the U.S. Europe is trading on average up 1.5%, U.S. futures are up 0.3%, so it looks U.S. markets are not going to follow European lead. Sell side macro economists are following Goldman’s (brilliant) Jan Hatzius lead and reducing GDP growth both for second half of 2010 and […]
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 8 for the week ending August 6, 2010; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 11 rigs in the same time frame. On world scale number of drilling rigs rose for 52 rigs in July. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT), Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP), Tyson Foods (TSN), Quicksilver Resources (KWK), King Pharmaceuticals (KG), Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE), Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI) Tuesday: CareFusion (CFN), The Scotts Miracle Group (SMG), Walt Disney (DIS), Fossil (FOSL), TW Telecom (TWTC), Gartner (IT), Cree (CREE) Wednesday: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Dril-Quip […]
Baltic dry index rose 3.2% last week; Capesize Index gained 14.2%; Panamax Index fell -1.2%; Handysizes and Supramax Indexes gained -3.6% and -1.6% respectively. Positive recent developments: Russia grain export ban – increasing ton-mile relation; India imposing additional iron ore export tariffs – also increasing ton-mile relation; improved China steel prices and reduced China steel stockpiles. Negative recent developments: All time […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 4.5%. Arabian Gulf tonnage supply at 8 year high. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending July 30 was reported down 10.3%. Prior reading was at -10.7%. So, that’s probably it for this time… Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Nonfarm payrolls fell 131.000 in July. The consensus was at -65.000, revised reading for June was a decrease of 221.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.5% vs prior reading of 9.5% and consensus of 9.6%. Average weekly hours worked for private employees rose 0.2% to 34.2. Chart 1. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate Chart 2. […]
Working gas in storage rose 29 Bcf from previous week. Definitely getting more and more interesting… Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
Monster Employment Index fell to 138 in July; May reading was at 141. Charts 1. Monster Employment Index