Global Macro Perspectives
After Standard & Poor’s cut Ireland credit rating down one notch from AA to AA- (with negative outlook) the Irish – German 10 year government bond yield spread widened to record high 330 bps. Bloomberg story on Ireland downgrade: Ireland’s Credit Rating Cut by S&P on Costs of Bank Aid. Chart 1. Irish – German 10 Year Government Bond […]
Sales of existing homes in U.S. fell 27.2% to 3.83 million units SAAR; the lowest reading since 1996. Consensus was at 4.65 million. Total housing inventory is at 4.0 million units vs. 3.9 million units in June. Months supply rose from 8.9 to 12.5 months; all-time high. Chart 1. U.S. Existing Home Sales Chart 2. U.S. […]
A kind of uneasy feeling surrounds markets today and I can see only negatives on the horizon: Japanese Yen and Australian dollar – currencies involved in financing equity bets moved against financing users. Peripheral Europe bond spreads rose in recent weeks; Greek are even close to pre-bailout levels. Hungarian Forint vs. Swiss Franc again close to all […]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July was reported at 0.0 vs. June revised reading of -0.7. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.17. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below–0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has begun. Another indicator pointing […]
U.S. railroads originated 295,948 carloads for the week ending August 13, up 7.8% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 6.6% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +4.0%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 19 for the week ending August 20, 2010; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 7 rigs in the same time frame. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Tuesday Morning (TUES), ABM Industries (ABM), Kensey Nash (KNSY), Sanderson Farms (SAFM) Tuesday: Dycom Industries (DY), Medtronic (MDT), Burger King Holdings (BKC), Big Lots (BIG), Barnes & Noble (BKS), Daktronics (DAKT) Wednesday: Toll Brothers (TOL), Coldwater Creek (CWTR), OSI Systems (OSIS), Brown Shoe Co. (BWS), Jo-Ann Stores (JAS), American […]
Baltic dry index rose 11.7% last week; Capesize Index gained 11.5%; Panamax Index rose 7.9%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 13.4% and 5.3% respectively. Chinese steel mills resumed with iron ore purchases. Indian ore exports have effectively stopped because of export tariffs / rain season / illegal mining inquiries so Indian ore is being substituted with Australian and Brazilian. With the twist of speculative euphoria and unwarranted […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 6.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 2.8%. We have crude oil production returning to pre-crisis levels (2 million barrels per day shy), but the rates are really pathetic. They have built too many ships, same will happen with dry bulk. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Continuing with the continuing of the Hindenburg Omen Story: The Hindenburg Omen Confirmed. It got confirmed for second time on Friday. Zero Hedge post: Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week. Longs may be forgiven if they are sweating their long positions over the weekend: not only did […]
(Week Ending August 13, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending August 13 was reported down 10.0%. Prior reading was revised from -9.8% to -10.2%. Contrary to Conference Board LEI, ECRI Weakly Leading Index is pointing to a recession. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Continuing with Hindenburg Omen story. Apparently it got confirmed yesterday. Zero Hedge post: Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1. Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 […]
Working gas in storage rose 27 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 31 Bcf. Additions to storage are slowing down and the total storage is getting more and more closer to the pre-crisis averages. Very, very interesting… Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. […]
Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index fell 4.0% in June and it is now running at -9.1% YoY. Chart 1. Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.1% in July. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior revised reading was at -0.3%. LEI contrary to ECRI Leading Index is pointing to minimal GDP growth. Chart 1. Conference Board Leading Economic Index