Global Macro Perspectives
(For The Week Ending August 27, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 17; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 12. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: SWS Group (SWS), Jos. A Bank Clothiers (JOSB), Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI), Volt Information Sciences (VOL) Tuesday: ABM Industries (ABM), Applied Signal Technology (APSG) Wednesday: Brown-Forman (BF-B), Greif (GEF), Joy Global (JOYG), Oxford Industries (OXM), Martek Biosciences (MATK), Collective Brands (PSS), HJ Heinz Co. (HNZ), SAIC (SAI), Genesco Inc. […]
Baltic dry index fell 1.6% last week; Capesize Index fell 3.6%; Panamax Index fell also 3.6%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 1.6% and 1.0% respectively. I added 3 new charts below. Iron ore and steel inventory (5 cities only, but I think it should work as a proxy) and iron ore price. The fundamentals are […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 5.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.4%. Supply is overwhelming demand, rates are approximately at ship operating costs, I don’t think further comment is needed. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending August 20 was reported down 9.9%. Prior reading was revised (again) from -10.0% to -10.1%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
I was unable to post this on Friday…so I’m posting it now, just for the record… U.S. GDP Q2 growth was revised from 2.4% to 1.6%. The consensus was at 1.3%, Q1 reading was at 2.7%. Revision not as big as expected, but the slowdown is materializing in official data. Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent […]
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 40 Bcf from previous week. The price has fallen a lot, given macro-economic data we could see more downside, but I will follow this carefully as I thing great opportunity is developing here. The storage before winter will not be so high as last […]
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) Initial jobless claims were reported at 473.000. The consensus was at 495.000, last week revised reading was at 504.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 4.1 million barrels for week ending August 20; Gasoline stocks increased 2.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 1.8 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were 1.1 million barrels higher; Other oils stocks were up 2.2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 8.9 million […]
From the Press Release: The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.5 percent in July, although June’s reduction was revised from 1.4 percent to 1.6 percent. The latest improvement raised the SA index from 108.3 (2000=100) in June to 110 in July. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that […]
U.S. new home sales fell 12.4% in July to 276.000 SAAR, the consensus was at 340.000 SAAR, prior reading (revised downward 15.000) was at 315.000 SAAR. Chart 1. U.S. New Home Sales SAAR
Durable good orders fell 0.3% in July vs. +2.5% consensus and -1.0% decrease in June. Transportation taken out the figure was a decrease of whopping -3.8% vs. -0.6% fall in June. This is game changing report, it was obvious that consumer demand was weakening and housing is cratering, now we have confirmation that investments are also falling. Big miss […]
(Week Ending August 20, 2010) MBA mortgage applications rose 4.9% for week ending August 20, prior reading was an increase of 13.0.%. Refinance index rose 5.7%; Purchase index rose 0.6%. No buyers in sight. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Time passes so fast. Today marks one year since my first post (The World Today) was released. It has been a troublesome year both for the markets and for me. In meantime I have changed firms and I have to say (despite hardship in the process) it worked out great. 652 posts later I have to […]
Just to note…the Hindenburg Omen has been confirmed for third time. It reoccurs quite often in the last couple of weeks which is quite unusual, but I suspect this is a product of (strangely) high market correlation. Chart 1. CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index