Global Macro Perspectives
(For The Week Ending August 27) Crude oil stocks rose 3.4 million barrels for the week ending August 27; Gasoline stocks decreased 0.2 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.7 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 1.5 million barrels; Other oils stocks were up 2.3 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 4.0 million barrels […]
(For August 2010) U.S. total motor vehicle sales for August fell 0.48 million units to 11.46 million SAAR. Market share of domestic producers fell 1.8% to 75.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Chart 2. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Domestic vs. Foreign Market Share
ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 56.3 vs. prior reading of 55.5 and consensus of 52.8. Strange. Somebody knew… Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia and Empire State Manufacturing Surveys
Till we get the actual number…. The consensus is at 52.8. Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia and Empire State Manufacturing Surveys
(For August 2010) ADP Employment fell 10,000 in August vs. revised rise of 37,000 in July. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday will be negative, probably missing a -80.000 consensus. Chart 1. ADP Employment
(For August 2010) Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 34,768 in August vs. 41,676 in July. Chart 1. Challenger Job-Cut Report
(For The Week Ending August 27, 2010) MBA mortgage applications rose 2.7% , prior reading was an increase of 4.9.%. Refinance index rose 2.8%; Purchase index rose 1.8%. Only refinances, no change in purchase applications. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
(For August 2010) Official China PMI rose from 51.5 to 51.7; The HSBC/Markit PMI rose from 49.4 to 51.9. Reading bellow 50 means contraction. Equity markets cheerful on that despite absolute level flirting with contraction. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI / HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI
Integral version. In general, something for everybody. Looks like it puzzled the markets, but I think the focus tomorrow will be on FOMC unwillingness (for the time being) to “resume large-scale asset purchases”. My take: Economic outlook. Little bit too positive in my view. In the economic forecast prepared for the AugustFOMC meeting, the staff lowered its projection for theincrease […]
(For August 2010) Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 53.5 vs. 50.7 consensus and 51.0 reading for July. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For August 2010) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 56.7 vs. 57.0 consensus and 62.3 July reading. Chart 1.
(For June 2010) Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 0.3%; Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite also rose 0.3%. This is three month rolling average for June. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
Excellent opinion piece in todays Financial Times by Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart. Carmen Reinhart co-authored with Kenneth S. Rogoff now famous study on public and foreign debt: Growth in a Time of Debt. Finacial Times link (subscription required): Beware those who think the worst is past. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, painted a […]
U.S. personal income rose 0.2% in July vs. 0.3% consensus and revised 0.0% June reading. On YoY level the personal income is up 3.0%. U.S. consumer spending also rose 0.4% in July vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.o% prior reading. On YoY level the consumer spending is up 3.4%. U.S. personal savings as a percentage of […]
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 296,634 carloads, up 7.3% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 8.1% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +0.2%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total