Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic dry index rose 4.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 2.1%; Panamax Index rose 8.7%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 2.7% and 1.1% respectively. Iron ore stockpiles moved sharply lower, suggesting demand will be solid in near-term. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 2.7%. Too few cargoes and too many ships. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Discover Financial Services (DFS), Matrix Service (MTRX), HB Fuller (FUL), Volt Information Sciences (VOL) Tuesday: Pall (PLL), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Best Buy (BBY), Kroger (KR) Wednesday: AAR (AIR), CLARCOR (CLC), Apogee Enterprises (APOG) Thursday: FedEx (FDX), Marcus (MCS), Herman Miller (MLHR), Oracle (ORCL) Friday: – Important […]
(For The Week Ending September 3, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending September 3, 2010 was reported down 10.1%. Prior (revised down -0.1) reading was at -10.2%. Still in the recession territory. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(For The Week Ending September 3, 2010) Crude oil stocks fell 1.9 million barrels for the week ending September 3, 2010; Gasoline stocks decreased 0.2 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.4 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 1.6 million barrels; Other oils stocks were up 1.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 0.2 […]
(For August 2010) China trade balance was reported at USD 20.0 billion vs. USD 28.7 billion in July. Export and import growth were running at 34.4 and 35.2 percent. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 104.5 billion vs. USD 123.7 billion for the same last year and full year 2009 USD 196 billion. Numbers are quite disappointing, […]
(For August 2010) Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China rose 9.3% in August compared with 10.3% reading in July and 10.0% consensus. Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price YoY
(For The Week Ending September 3, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 58 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 57 Bcf. My stance is unchanged from previous week: “Stockpiling will be higher in the following weeks (because of mild temperatures) so the overall supply/demand balance for the coming months will be better then last year, but […]
(For The Week Ending September 3, 2010) Initial jobless claims were reported at 451.000. The consensus was at 470.000, last week revised (up 8.000) reading was at 478.000. Bloomberg: Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased 27,000 to 451,000 Last Week. …For the latest reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department in […]
(For July 2010) U.S. trade balance for June was reported at $-42.8 billion vs. consensus of $-47.0 billion and June reading of $-49.8 billion. Chart 1. U.S. Trade Balance
(For The Week Ending September 3, 2010) Initial jobless claims were reported at 451.000. The consensus was at 470.000, last week revised (up 8.000) reading was at 478.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Extension of European debt problems returned as a mayor concern this week. Most notable problem is, off-course, much hyped Ireland’s banking system nationalization. Latest leg included spiting up Anglo Irish. Bloomberg: Ireland’s Burial Plan for Anglo Irish Keeps Cost Question Alive. Irish 10 year government yield spread versus same maturity German issue moved to new highs. Chart 1. Ireland vs. Germany […]
I will be away from my computer from now till Thursday, so regular service continues on Thursday, September 9.
It’s a slow day both in terms of data scheduled to be released and in terms of trading. The bias is negative. Surprise of the day is 2.2% fall in German manufacturing orders for July. The consensus was at 0.5%, June reading at 3.2%. Given the recent strength in German economy, this comes as a quite big negative surprise. Chart […]
(For The Week Ending September 3, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 7; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 4. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count