Global Macro Perspectives
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 450.000. The consensus was at 459.000, last week revised (up 2.000) reading was at 453.000. Initial claims and 4-week average have come down a bit in last couple weeks, but this level of jobless claims is consistent with negative non-farm […]
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in August. The consensus was at 0.2%, July revised (from +1.0) reading at 0.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Industrial Production Capacity utilization rose to 74.7% in August vs. 74.6% in July (revised from 74.8%) and consensus of 75.0%. Chart 2. Capacity Utilization Same as with Empire State Manufacturing Survey earlier today, below […]
(For September 2010) Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September came out at 4.14 vs. 8.0 consensus and 7.1 prior reading. Again bellow consensus; again deteriorating. It will be hard to produce another miraculous ISM Manufacturing reading. Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia FED, Empire State Manufacturing Surveys and Chicago PMI
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) MBA mortgage applications fell 8.9% , prior reading was a decrease of 1.5.%. Refinance index fell 10.8%; Purchase index fell 0.4%. No change in purchase applications; Refinancing is heading lower as number of homeowners who have not refinanced is being exhausted. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index climbed 1.7% in July following a 1.9% drop in June. Press release. “The August data is obviously discouraging after the cautious optimism created from July’s report,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist. “There is not much to feel good about with the August data in terms of the unemployment picture, but there […]
No surprise they intervened, only the scale of the exchange rate move is somewhat surprising to me. Nice candle. Yen strengthening was the result of China increasing its portion of foreign currency reserves held in Japanese Yen, probably attempting to soften U.S. anger over China exchange rate policy by causing problems elsewhere. The world of competitive debasement continues, probably with increased intensity; they will […]
Another brilliant commentary by John P. Hussman of Hussman funds. Impulse Response by John P. Hussman of Hussman funds (www.hussmanfunds.com). …So what is the most likely outcome of this situation? In my view, the next three months represent the most serious window for the U.S. economy and labor market. The typical 23-26 week lag between […]
Yield was at 4.82 vs. 4.65 on July 13. Mighty high as Greece supposedly received 2-year fully funded bailout package. German 6-month rate is at 0.43%.
(For August 2010) U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% in August . The consensus was at 0.3%, June reading was revised down to 0.3%. Autos taken out, the figure was an increase of 0.6% right vs. consensus 0.3% growth. Prior reading was revised to 0.1%. On year level retail sales are up 3.6%. Gains, again, came mostly […]
(For September 2010) ZEW Germany expectation of economic growth for September came out at -4.3 vs. 10 consensus and 14.0 reading for July. Further indication of slowdown in German economy. Chart 1. ZEW Germany Expectation of Economic Growth vs. Assessment Current Situation 6-Month Lag
(For August 2010) Industrial production in China rose 13.9% y-o-y in August from 13.4% in July. The consensus was at 13.0%. Chart 1. China Industrial Production
(For August 2010) China retail sales rose 18.4% in August vs. 18.0% consensus and 18.2% growth in July. Chart 1. China Retail Sales Growth
(For August 2010) China Consumer Price Index was up 3.5% in August, right at the consensus. June reading was also at 3.5%. China Producer Price Index was up 4.3% in August vs. 4.5% consensus and 4.8% July reading. Again, most of the consumer price increase came from food. PPI eased again on a year level, but […]
(For August 2010) My impression from the August China macroeconomic data is that the Chinese government has speed up monetary expansion while keeping tight grip on real-estate and equity markets. The August speed up means that either the rate of expansion will slow down in the last quarter of 2010 or Chinese targets for this year will […]
(For The Week Ending September 3, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 305,000 carloads, up 6.8% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 0.8% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +0.9%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total