Global Macro Perspectives
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research announced today said that through in business activity in U.S. occurred in June 2009 making the and of the recession that began in December 2007. From the press release. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At […]
(For September) Housing Market Index for September came out at 13 vs. 13 in August. Consensus was at 14. All components unchanged except traffic of perspective buyers which edged 1 point lower. Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
Irish 10 year government yield spread versus same maturity German issue rose today to new highs. Both Barclays Capital and Goldman Sachs issued their reports in the last couple of days claiming it is not clear whether Ireland can finance its budget deficit without EU/IMF help. On Friday ECB intervened buying Irish government bonds. FT story: ECB intervenes in […]
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 277,000 carloads, up 5.4% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 9.7% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -9.0% (due to Labor day). Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total
Baltic dry index fell 10.7% last week; Capesize Index was down 13.7%; Panamax Index also fell 13.7%; Supramax Indexes fell 1.7%; Handysize Index rose 0.6%, China iron ore stockpiles moved sharply higher offsetting last week’s inventory draw. We will probably see increased demand with the start of new quarter and lower iron ore benchmark prices. Not much happening […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.1%. No improvements in supply/demand balance. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL), FactSet Research Systems (FDS), Lennar (LEN), Discover Financial Services (DFS), Park Electrochemical (PKE) Tuesday: Adobe Systems (ADBE), Progress Software (PRGS), Cintas (CTAS), ConAgra Foods (CAG), Carnival (CCL), AutoZone (AZO), Analogic (ALOG) Wednesday: Darden Restaurants (DRI), Jefferies (JEF), General Mills (GIS), CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath & Beyond […]
This is an essential book for everyone who wants to take deeper look into option trading world, especially from practical (trader) standpoint. The book provides: an overview of option basics (both theoretical and practical), an overview of basic option trading strategies and introduces the concept of delta neutral trading. The author avoids all the big formulas we were taught at faculty and focuses […]
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending September 10, 2010 was reported down 9.2%. Prior reading was at -10.1%. Out of the recession territory. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(For September 2010) University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment for September came out at 66.6 vs. 70.0 consensus and 68.9 August reading. Another weak reading, consumer don’t feel like spending. Weakest reading since August 2009. Chart 1. University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
(For August 2010) U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% in August, right at the consensus. July reading was also 0.3%. Chart 1. U.S. Consumer Price Index Consumer price index fell less food & energy came out unchanged. The consensus was at 0.1%, July reading was at 0.1%. Chart 2. U.S. Consumer Price Index Core (Less Food […]
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 103 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 93 Bcf. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
(For September 2010) Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index rose to -0.7. The consensus was at +3.8, prior reading at -7.7. Again bellow consensus and again pointing to contraction. Both Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index point to lower ISM manufacturing. Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia FED, Empire State Manufacturing Surveys and Chicago PMI
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) Crude oil stocks fell 1.9 million barrels for the week ending September 10, 2010; Gasoline stocks decreased 0.7 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 0.2 million barrels; Other oils stocks were up 0.8 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.9 […]
(For August 2010) U.S. producer price index rose 0.4% in august, just 0.1% shy of 0.3% consensus. July reading was at 0.2%. On year level PPI is up 3.1%. Chart 1. U.S. Producer Price Index Food & energy taken out U.S. producer price index rose 0.1% in August. The consensus was also at 0.1%, prior reading at […]