Global Macro Perspectives
(For August 2010) Durable good orders fell -1.3% in August vs. -1.0% consensus and +0.7% decrease in July (revised upwards from +0.3%). Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Transportation taken out the figure was a increase of 2.0% vs. -2.8% fall in July (revised upwards from -3.8%). The consensus was at +1.0%. Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders […]
(For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 73 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 80 Bcf. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
(For August 2010) If you were (same as I) wondering why market moved up it was because of this. Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.3% in August. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior revised reading was at 0.1%. On year level LEI is up 6.9% vs. 7.2% in July. Digging little deeper we can […]
(For August 2010) Sales of existing homes in U.S. rose 7.6% to 4.13 million units SAAR. Consensus was at 4.1 million. Chart 1. U.S. Existing Home Sales Total housing inventory is unchanged from July at 4.0 million units. Months supply fell from 12.5 to 11.6 months. Chart 2. U.S. Existing Home Sales Inventory & U.S. Existing […]
For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 1.0 million barrels for the week ending September 17, 2010; Gasoline stocks increased 1.6 million barrels; Distillate stocks were up 0.3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks remained unchanged; Other oils stocks were up 0.7 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.9 million […]
(For The Week Ending September 18, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 465.000. The consensus was at 450.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 453.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For July 2010) FHFA House Price Index fell 0.5% in July vs. fall of 0.3%in June. On year level the index is down 3.3%. House prices could return to negative trend. Chart 1. FHFA House Price Index
Irish and Portuguese 10 year government bond yield spread versus same maturity German keep on rising. Latest rumors are that tha Anglo Irish creditors will not be paid off in full. Ireland auctioned February 2011 and April 2010 bills today; bit to cover for February bills fell from 9.4 times on previous auction to 4.1 times; bit to cover […]
(For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) MBA mortgage applications fell 1.4% , prior reading was a decrease of 8.9.%. Refinance index fell 0.9%; Purchase index fell 3.3%. Purchase index which is supposed to be leading home sales – pathetic in one word. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
In last 7 sessions Baltic Dry Index declined 14.5%. This is little bit surprising since with the start of new quarter lower iron ore price kicks in. Maybe holiday season (Mid Autumn Festival – from September 22 to September 24 and National Day – from October 1 to October 7)… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
New highs today for Irish and Portuguese 10 year government bond yield spread versus same maturity German. Greece yields off recent highs. ECB is not managing to put this under control. Chart 1. Ireland vs. Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Spread Chart 2. Portugal vs. Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Spread Chart 3. Greece vs. Germany […]
They admitted only that the pace of recovery has slowed in recent months and introduced a hint of additional measures. Like I expected only the weakening economic activity is not fully addressed. Unexpectedly a fear of deflation and a will to fight it is introduced into statement (in two instances), in my view completely off the mark. The main […]
I would say that the market (equity especial) is pricing further QE measures being announced today. Since there was some reservation and conflicting views during the last FOMC meeting on the reinvestment of agency and MBS debt and economic data is not deteriorating as fast as in anticipation of previous meeting, the odds that FED will introduce additional QE today are slim, in […]
(For August) U.S. housing starts in August rose 10.5% to 598.000 vs. revised (5.000 lower) 541.000 July reading. The consensus was at 550.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are up 2.9% Chart 1. U.S. Housing Starts Number of building permits issued in the U.S. in August rose 1.8% to 569.000. The consensus was at 560.000. […]
(For July 2010) Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index fell 3.1% in July and it is now running at -7.2% YoY. Chart 1. Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index