Global Macro Perspectives
Irish spreads again a bit higher today. Irish government will announce tomorrow the details of Anglo Irish burial rescue. So far the bank has received EUR 23 billion of state help, tomorrow will be added additional EUR 10-15 billion. Incidental tomorrow marks two years of Irish government guaranteeing Anglo Irish debt and the guarantee is not (jet) extended. So, there is a possibility that some EUR 5.7 billion […]
(For September 2010) HSBC/Markit China PMI rose from 49.4 to 52.9. It appears that China industrial production figures for September will improve a bit. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI; HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI; China Industrial Production Growth
(For September 2010) Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey came out today at -2. The consensus was at 6.0, prior reading at 6. Another manufacturing survey bellow consensus and again pointing to contraction. Richmond FED Manufacturing, Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index all point to lower ISM manufacturing. Richmond FED Manufacturing, Dallas Fed Manufacturing […]
(For September 2010) Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 48.5 vs. 52.1 consensus and 53.5 reading for August. Big miss; markets as usual not valuing negative news and readings. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For July 2010) Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 0.03%; Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite also fell 0.3%. On a year level 10 city index is up 4.0%; 20 city index is up 3.1% This is three month rolling average for July. Time lag is huge. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. […]
Irish 10 year government bond yield spread versus same maturity German moved to new record high today. European markets resemble roller coaster ride today, having fallen post opening and paring losses after some verbal intervention from ECB officials. Irish story is starting to more and more look like Greece earlier. Chart 1. Ireland vs. Germany […]
(For September 2010) Dallas FED Manufacturing Activity was reported at -17.7. The consensus was at -6.0, prior reading at -13.5. Again bellow consensus and again pointing to contraction. Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index all point to lower ISM manufacturing. Dallas Fed Manufacturing and Empire State Manufacturing both deteriorated in […]
(For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 304,679 carloads, up 7.9% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 4.2% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +9.8% (due to Labor day). Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total
Baltic dry index fell 8.7% last week; Capesize Index was down 10.3%; Panamax Index fell 7.1%; Supramax Index fell 6.6%; Handysize Index was down 1.5%. Baltic dry index is off 18.6% from recent peek. Holiday season in China (Mid Autumn Festival – from September 22 to September 24 and National Day – from October 1 to October […]
(For August 2010) Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August was reported at -0.53 vs. July revised reading of -0.11. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.42. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 2.2%. Dead in the water. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Moody’s just downgraded Anglo Irish senior unsecured debt by three notches (A3/Prime-1 to Baa3/Prime-3) and subordinated debt by six notches (Ba1 to Caa1). Irish spreads unchanged at Fridays record highs. Downgrade (as usual) when the market price has already ran its course.
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Paychex (PAYX), Thor Industries (THO), Zale (ZLC), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) Tuesday: Walgreen (WAG), Standard Microsystems (SMSC) Wednesday: SYNNEX (SNX), Worthington Industries (WOR), Actuant (ATU), Family Dollar Stores (FDO), American Greetings (AM), Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) Thursday: AZZ (AZZ), Christopher & Banks Corporation (CBK), McCormick & Co. […]
(For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending September 17, 2010 was reported down 8.7%. Prior reading was at -9.3% (revised -0.1% lower). This is it for this leg down. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(For August) U.S. new home sales were unchanged in August at 288.000 SAAR, the consensus was at 295.000 SAAR, prior reading (revised upward 12.000) was also at 288.000 SAAR. And markets move higher on this too… Chart 1. U.S. New Home Sales SAAR