Global Macro Perspectives
(For September 2010) ADP Employment fell 39,000 in September vs. revised (up 20,000) gain of 10,000 in August. Consensus was at +20,000. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday (rule of thumb) will be negative, probably missing -54.000 consensus. Unemployment will rise. Chart 1. ADP Employment
(For September 2010) Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 37,151 in September vs. 34,768 in August. Chart 1. Challenger Job-Cut Report
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) MBA mortgage applications fell 0.2% , prior reading was a decrease of 0.8.%. Refinance index fell 2.5%; Purchase index rose 9.3%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
This months strategy is a little bit late because your favorite blogger is feeling (a bit) nihilistic in the last weeks. We have had a nice run in September in almost all asset classes. Reasons: recent economic data is not deteriorating as fast as feared and the central bankers determination to extend monetary stimulus is stronger […]
(For September 2010) ISM Non- Manufacturing Index was reported at 53.2 vs. 52.0 consensus and 51.5 reading in July. Chart 1. ISM Non- Manufacturing Index
(For August 2010) U.S. factory orders fell 0.5% in August. The consensus was at -0.3%, prior reading was at 0.1%. Factory shipments fell 0.6%, July reading was at 1.2%. We have gap in the making between orders and shipments. Chart 1. U.S. Manufacturers New Orders & Shipments
(For August 2010) Pending home sales index rose 4.3% in August vs. revised rise of 4.5% in July. On year level, the index is down 20.1%, Chart 1. Pending Home Sales Index
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 14; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 5. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
(For The Week Ending September 24, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 300,908 carloads, up 10.8% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 6.7% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -1.2% (due to Labor day). Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads
(For September 2010) U.S. total motor vehicle sales for September rose 0.27 million units to 11.73 million SAAR. Chart 1. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Market share of domestic producers fell 0.4% to 75.2%. Chart 2. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Domestic vs. Foreign Market Share
Baltic dry index rose 0.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 9.5%; Panamax Index fell 11.3%; Supramax Index fell 1.9%; Handysize Index was down 2.9%. So, capesize gains offset other component losses. Data flow is tainted by holiday season in China (Mid Autumn Festival – from September 22 to September 24 and National Day – from October 1 to […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday, October 4 Cantel Medical (CMN) Skyline (SKY) Tuesday, October 5 Wolverine World Wide (WWW) Volt Information Sciences (VOL) Diamond Foods (DMND) Yum! Brands (YUM) Helen of Troy (HELE) Monsanto (MON) Costco Wholesale (COST) Acuity Brands (AYI) Ruby Tuesday (RT) RPM International (RPM) Robbins & Myers (RBN) Constellation Brands (STZ) […]
Contrary to books title which is in my view to extreme, this is balanced and well written book on today’s energy situation and all the accepts of finding, developing , using crude oil and it’s importance for civilization. I have stated my view on peek oil theory couple of times in my posts. I’ll repeat it once more: It is […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 4.6%. Supply still overweighting demand. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
(For The Week Ending September 24, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending September 24, 2010 was reported down 7.8%. Prior reading was at -8.7%.. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index