Global Macro Perspectives
Nothing special here, FOMC is determinate to provide further monetary stimulus by purchasing longer-dated treasuries. The question which they debated on is whether to provide these measures in case the speed of growth doesn’t pick up or in case the economic condition worsen. My take is, I would not bet that they will announce asset buying programe during November meeting, and […]
(For August 2010) China Vehicle sales were at 1.32 million; up 16.1% y-o-y and up 6.3% m-o-m. Sales are 23.8% down from March high. China domestic consumption is not rising fast enough to enable China shifting away from export driven growth model. Chart 1. China Car Sales
We still don’t have any reaction from the markets on recent issues with mortgage documentation and to be frank I still don’t know what to think on all that. In terms of housing market possibilities are: 1. This all is overblown and the number of mortgages with defective legal documents is insignificant. 2. Number of mortgages with defective legal documents is […]
This is absolutely great.
(For The Week Ending October 8, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 3; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 9. On world scale number of drilling rigs rose for 35 rigs in September. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes […]
Baltic dry index rose 10.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 19.2%; Panamax Index fell 0.4%; Supramax Index rose 2.8%; Handysize Index was down 0.5%. So, capesizes again leading. Strong iron ore demand from China. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday, October 11 Healthcare Services Group (HCSG) Consolidated Graphics (CGX) Zep (ZEP) Global Payments (GPN) Tuesday, October 12 CSX (CSX) Fastenal (FAST) Intel (INTC) Wednesday, October 13 JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) ADTRAN (ADTN) Universal Forest Products (UFPI) Apollo Group (APOL) WD-40 Company (WDFC) Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) Bank […]
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is fictionalized biography of Jesse Livermore – to this day one of most famous financial speculators of all time. In short, Mr. Livermore started trading at young age; he earned first $1,000 at age of fifteen; during his life he experienced major successes and failures; he earned $3,000,000 and $100,000,000 (something like $1.3 billion […]
(For The Week Ending October 8, 2010) Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 10.7%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.3%. Probably a short term mismatch (strike in France) in supply and demand pushed dirty rates up. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
(For The Week Ending October 2, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 299,394 carloads, up 7.8% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 6.9% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.5%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending October 1, 2010 was reported down 7.0%. Prior reading was at -7.8%.. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Nonfarm payrolls fell 95.000 in September. The consensus was at -8.000, August reading was revised (-3.000) decrease of 57.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.6% vs. prior reading of 9.6% and consensus of 9.7%. Private payrolls were up 64.000 vs. 85.000 consensus and 67.000 reading in August. Average weekly hours worked for private employees remain […]
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 85 Bcf from previous week. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
(For The Week Ending October 2, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 445.000. The consensus was at 455.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 456.000. Next weeks will be crucial, if the improvements continue this could be quite positive for U.S. economy. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 3.1 million barrels for the week ending October 1, 2010; Gasoline stocks fell 2.6 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 1.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.6 million barrels; Other oils stocks were up 1.0 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were […]