Global Macro Perspectives
(For September 2010) China Consumer Price Index was up 3.6% in September, again right at the consensus. August reading was at 3.5%. China Producer Price Index was up 4.3% in September, same as in August. Consensus was at 4.1%. Again, most of the consumer price increase came from food. Both of the inflation measures rose significantly on m-o-m […]
(For Q3 2010) China third quarter GDP growth was reported at 9.6%, slowing down from second quarter growth rate of 10.3%. Most of the slowdown can be attributed to fixed-asset investment slowdown. I have to say I expected a stronger figure given recent rise in benchmark interest rate, so I conclude that the rate increase is mainly […]
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) MBA mortgage applications fell 10.5% , prior reading was an increase of 14.6.%. Refinance index fell 11.2%; Purchase index fell 6.7%. This looks quite negative, not sure if it is connected with foreclosure mess. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Bloomberg story: Pimco, New York Fed Said to Seek BofA Repurchase of Mortgages. Pacific Investment Management Co., BlackRock Inc. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are seeking to force Bank of America Corp. to repurchase soured mortgages packaged into $47 billion of bonds by its Countrywide Financial Corp. unit, people familiar with the […]
(For August 2010) Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index fell 3.3% in August and it is now running at -7.6% YoY. Chart 1. Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index
(For September 2010) U.S. housing starts in September rose 0.3% to 610.000 vs. revised (10.000 higher) 608.000 August reading. The consensus was at 580.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are up 4.1% Chart 1. U.S. Housing Starts Number of building permits issued in the U.S. in August fell 5.6% to 539.000. The consensus was at 575.000. On year […]
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 5; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 5. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
(For September 2010) Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China rose 9.1% in September compared with 9.3% reading in August and 8.8% consensus. Chinese government has put the price increases under control. Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price y-o-y
(For October 2010) Housing Market Index for October was reported at 16 vs. 13 in September. Consensus was at 14. All components up, especially future component. What do you have if you don’t have hope….? Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
(For September 2010) U.S. industrial production fell 0.2% in September. The consensus was at 0.2%, August reading at 0.2%. Chart 1. U.S. Industrial Production Capacity utilization fell to 74.7% in from revised 74.8% in August (revised from 74.7%) and consensus of 74.8%. Chart 2. Capacity Utilization Bigger miss than suggested by ISM manufacturing.
Baltic dry index rose 2.4% last week; Capesize Index was up 6.6%; Panamax Index fell 6.2%; Supramax Index was down 1.9%; Handysize Index was down 3.8%. Capesizes still leading on iron ore demand from China. Strange that other vessel classes and not following… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart […]
Important U.S. economic data: Prior Consensus Monday, October 18 Treasury International Capital Industrial Production 0.2% 0.2% Capacity Utilization Rate 74.7% 74.8% Housing Market Index Tuesday, October 19 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Housing Starts 598.000 580.000 Redbook Wednesday, October 20 MBA Purchase Applications EIA Petroleum Status Report Beige Book Thursday, October 21 Jobless Claims 462.000 455.000 Leading […]
In short you get exactly what the title says: history of interest rates. It’s probably the only such concise material on the subject. Like all the history books it’s not a lot of fun to read but a lot of useful information is in there, especially tables and charts with interest rate data. The reader is off […]
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 4.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was unchanged. Even though the strike in France keeps vessels employed (at anchor) – the market is still oversupplied. Rates are bellow operating costs. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
(For The Week Ending October 9, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 297,029 carloads, up 8.6% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 7.2% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.8%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads