Global Macro Perspectives
(For September 2010) Sales of existing homes in U.S. rose 10.0% to 4.53 million units SAAR. Consensus was at 4.3 million. Chart 1. U.S. Existing Home Sales Total housing inventory is at 4.04 million units down from 4.12 million in August. Months supply fell from 12.0 to 10.7 months. Chart 2. U.S. Existing Home Sales Inventory & […]
(For September 2010) Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September was reported at -0.58 vs. revised August reading of -0.49. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.33. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has begun. Another […]
Baltic dry index fell 1.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 0.6%; Panamax Index fell 1.6%; Supramax Index was down 3.6%; Handysize Index was down 4.4%. Not much happening here. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. Iron Ore Inventory At Chinese […]
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.9%. I can repeat last week’s comment: “Even though the strike in France keeps vessels employed (at anchor) – the market is still oversupplied. Rates are bellow operating costs.” Bloomberg story: Supertankers Face Two-Year Losing Streak as […]
Important U.S. economic data: Prior Consensus Monday, October 25 Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.53 -0.3 Existing Home Sales 4.13 M 4.3 M Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity -17.7 -8.5 Tuesday, October 26 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Redbook S&P Case-Shiller HPI -0.2% -0.13% Consumer Confidence 48.5 49.5 FHFA House Price Index -0.5% -0.2% Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index […]
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 303,664 carloads, up 10.2% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 4.6% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +2.2%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending October 15, 2010 was reported down 7.0%. Prior reading was revised downwards for -0.1% to -7.0%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 93 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 88 Bcf. Storage just keeps on rising futures more and more oversold. It has to end at some time… Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average […]
(For September 2010) Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.3% in September. The consensus was at 0.3%, prior revised reading (from +0.3%) was at 0.1%. On year level LEI is up 6.0% vs. 6.8% in August. This is uber-Keynesian indicator as 43% of its value is derived from monetary factors (M2 and interest rate spread). […]
(For October 2010) Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index rose to 1.0. The consensus was at 2.0, prior reading at -0.7. Slightly improved, but still close to contraction. Chart 1. ISM vs. Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 0.7 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 1.2 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 2.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 0.7 million barrels; Other oils stocks fell 0.9 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.0 million barrels lower than the week […]
(For The Week Ending October 16, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 452.000. The consensus was at 455.000, last week revised (up 13.000) reading was at 475.000. Big revision… Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For September 2010) China fixed asset investments rose 24.5% In September; the consensus was at 24.6%, August reading was 24.8%. This is obviously under control. Chart 1. China Fixed Assets Investment
(For September 2010) Industrial production in China rose 13.3% y-o-y in September; August reading was at 13.9%. The consensus was at 14.0%. PMI’s were wrong…. Chart 1. China Industrial Production vs. China PMI’s
(For September 2010) China retail sales rose 18.8% in September vs. 18.5% consensus and 18.4% growth in August. Chart 1. China Retail Sales Growth