Global Macro Perspectives
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 5.0 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were down 4.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 1.6 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.7 million barrels; Other oils stocks rose 0.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 0.6 million barrels higher than the week […]
(For The Week Ending October 23, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 434.000. The consensus was at 455.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 455.000. Again moving lover, we will see if it holds. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For September) U.S. new home sales in September were reported at 307.000 SAAR, the consensus was at 300.000 SAAR, prior reading was at 288.000 SAAR. Chart 1. U.S. New Home Sales SAAR
Initially Greece planed a under 3% deficit, then they were reporting 6% , it was 12 % a month ago, and now its 15%. Bloomberg story: Greek Bonds Tumble as Government Says Tax Revenue Falling Short. Spreads wider… Chart 1. Greece vs. Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Spread
(For September 2010) Durable good orders rose 3.3% in September vs. 2.0% consensus and -1.0% decrease in August (revised upwards from -1.3%). Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Transportation taken out the figure was a decrease of 0.8% vs. 1.9% rise in August (revised upwards from 1.9%). The consensus was at +0.5%. Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ex. […]
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) MBA mortgage applications rose 3.2%; Prior reading was a decrease of 10.5.%; On year level MBA Basic Index is up 47.4%. Chart 1. Mortgage Bankers Association Basic Index SA MBA Refinancing index rose 3.0%; Prior reading was a decrease of 11.2.%; On year level MBA Refinancing Index is up 96.6%. Chart […]
The newspaper with the best track record on guessing (or maybe pre-announcing) FED policy changes reports that the QE 2 size will be smaller than market expects. The central bank is likely to unveil a program of U.S. Treasury bond purchases worth a few hundred billion dollars over several months, a measured approach in contrast to purchases of […]
(For August 2010) FHFA Purchase Only House Price Index rose 0.4% in August. Housing index data is complete now, feels slightly negative but nothing alarming. Chart 1. FHFA Purchase Only House Price Index vs. CoreLogic Home Price Index, Radar Logic Composite 25 – 28 Day, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index – Composite 20
(For October 2010) Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey came out today at 5. The consensus was at 1.0, prior reading at -2. We could probably see improved ISM manufacturing reading for October. Chart 1. ISM vs. Richmond Fed and Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For October 2010) Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 50.2 vs. 49.9 consensus and 48.6 revised reading for September. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
No recovery in sight, but also the price declines are not worrying (jet). Chart 1. U.S. House Price Indexes
(For August 2010) Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite fell 0.2% In August; On year level 10 city index is up 2.5%. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite fell 0.3%; On year level 20 city index is up 1.7%. Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 This is three month rolling average for […]
Bloomberg story: Treasury Draws Negative Yield for First Time During TIPS Sale. The Treasury sold $10 billion of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at a negative yield for the first time at a U.S. debt auction as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be successful in sparking inflation.
(For September 2010) China Leading Index came unchanged from August; on year level the index is down 3.1%. Chart 1. China Leading Index vs. China GDP Quarterly Growth Chart 2. China Leading Index y-o-y Growth vs. China GDP Quarterly Growth Q3 GDP growth looks rich versus leading index; Q4 GDP growth could edge lower… China Leading Index […]
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs remained unchanged; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 1. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count