Global Macro Perspectives
In the last month global economic outlook has improved a bit. In U.S. we can see some signs of retail sales and manufacturing activity growing at soft rates, but growing; at the same time employment, housing, construction spending, durable goods orders are stagnating. Recent fall in initial jobless claims has to be confirmed this week as […]
(For The Week Ending October 29, 2010) Baltic dry index fell 1.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.5%; Panamax Index rose 8.6%; Supramax Index was down 2.3%; Handysize Index was down 5.6%. Chinese demand strong, supply of available ships is enough to keep prices at current level. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. […]
(For September 2010) U.S. personal income fell 0.1% in September vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.5% August reading. On y-o-y level the personal income is up 3.1%. Chart 1. U.S. Personal Income U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2% in September vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.5% August reading. On y-o-y level the consumer spending is up 3.7%. Chart 2. […]
(For September 2010) U.S. construction spending rose 0.5% m-o-m in September vs. -0.5% consensus and revised (down -0.6%) 0.2% fall in August. On year level we are at -10.4%. Revisions are so big that one can’t rely on this data. Chart 1. U.S. Construction Spending
(For October 2010) ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 56.9 vs. prior reading of 54.4 and consensus of 54.5. Manufacturing growth improved in October. Chart 1. ISM Manufacturing vs. Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For October 2010) Both of the China Purchasing Manager Indexes rose in October. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI (“official PMI”) rose from 53.8 to 54.8. HSBC/Markit China PMI rose from 52.9 to also 54.8. In September industrial production didn’t follow the PMI’s readings, so odds are high this month that industrial […]
(For The Week Ending October 29, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 1; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 3. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Important U.S. economic data: Prior Consensus Monday, November 1 Personal Income 0.5% 0.3% Consumer Spending 0.4% 0.4% ISM Manufacturing Index 54.4 54.5 Construction Spending 0.4% -0.5% Tuesday, November 2 FOMC Meeting Begins Motor Vehicle Sales 8.6 M 8.8 M ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Redbook Wednesday, November 3 MBA Purchase Applications Challenger Job-Cut Report ADP Employment Report […]
This is an excellent book on history of financial speculation. Edward Chancellor focuses on speculative manias: from the ones in Rome, through tulip mania in Holland to Japanese bubble in 1980s. Book is interesting and relative easy to read. Main line of thought which probably inspired the author is that investment bubble never change, but the majority of the […]
(For The Week Ending October 29, 2010) Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 3.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 1.7%. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
(For The Week Ending October 23, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 302,855 carloads, up 9.6% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 5.4% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.3%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads
(For October 2010) October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading was reported at 67.7 vs. 68.0 consensus and 67.9 prior October reading. Unchanged level of confidence. Chart 1. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment vs. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For October 2010) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 60.6. The consensus was at 58.0, prior reading at 60.4. Regional manufacturing surveys signal improvements in October. Using rule of thumb I would say that industrial production in October will be unchanged. Chart 1. ISM vs. Chicago PMI and Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For Q3 2010) U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.0%, right at consensus. Q2 reading was at +1.7%. This is a big argument against new massive round of QE. Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP Growth
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 71 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 73 Bcf. Storage just keeps on rising futures more and more oversold. Long. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve