Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index Rose 0.4% In November
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index rose 0.4% in November after falling o.6% in October.
Morning Reading – December 7, 2010
Value Expectations on S&P 500 revenue growth; Distressed Debt Investing on High Yield Strategy; Business Insider (Doug Short) on Inflation; Alphaville on tax cuts; BeyondBRICs on China credit growth goals and Macro Man on gold vs. real interest rates.
Monthly Strategy – Holiday Edition – December 2010
In the last months global economic outlook has improved a bit. In U.S. we can see signs of personal consumption and manufacturing activity growing at soft rates, but growing; at the same time employment, housing, construction spending, durable goods orders are stagnating. Fall in initial jobless claims is clearly being offset by inflow of people into the workforce; job creation still weak.
Evening Reading – December 6, 2010
News from the the future (2013): After receiving a 30% haircut Greece debt to GDP ratio is at 112%. Sustainable…o yeah.
More on ECB peripheral Europe bond purchases; help Tim from The Slope Of Hope win a Nissan LEAF.
Morning Reading – December 6, 2010
China, next crisis and U.S. bank failures…
Dry Bulk Weekly – December 6, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 7.7%; Panamax Index rose 2.2%; Supramax Index rose 7.2%; Handysize Index was up 3.6%.
Stockpiles of iron ore and steel are falling, so we have no prof of falling demand in China (jet). I still expect Chinese buyers returning to the market and propping rates.
New Week Intro December 6, 2010
Important U.S. economic data; Important U.S. earnings this week.
“Helicopter Ben” On CBS 60 Minutes
Summary: Economy is barely expanding at a sustainable pace; Will print more money if needed.
Tanker Weekly – December 4, 2010
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 14.2%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 8.9%.
I would speculate that China resumed its imports pace and propped rates.
U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – December 4, 2010
U.S. railroads originated 254,121 carloads, up 3.2% compared with the same week in 2009 and down 14.3% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +14.2%.
Thanksgiving week contributing to slower traffic.
Evening Reading – December 3, 2010
FED bailouts, Chinese interest and exchange rate(s), Global interest rate, Corruption in Kazakhstan and last remaining bears.
November ISM Non-Manufacturing Index At 55.0
ISM Non- Manufacturing Index was reported at 55.0, right at the consensus; October reading was at 54.3.
U.S. Factory Orders Fell 0.9% In October
U.S. factory orders fell 0.9% in October. The consensus was at -0.8%, prior reading was at 2.1%.
Factory shipments rose 0.3%, September reading was at 0.3%.
November Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 39.000; Unemployment Rate At 9.8%
Nonfarm payrolls rose 39.000 in November. The consensus was at 150.000, October reading was an increase of 172.000 (revised +21.000). The unemployment was reported at 9.8% vs. prior reading of 9.6% and consensus of 9.6%.
Private payrolls were up 50.000 vs. 160.000 consensus and 160.000 reading in October (revised +1.000).
Average weekly hours worked for private employees stayed unchanged at 34.3.
Huge NEGATIVE surprise.
Morning Reading – December 3, 2010
Euro, Spain, Greece, Peripheral Europe Spreads, End of Rally, Morgan Stanley bailout and 19th century exams…