Global Macro Perspectives
** China NDRC Property Price Index ** China Trade Balance; Export & Import Growth ** China Monetary Aggregates ** China New Loan Issuance ** Consumer & Producer Price Indexes ** China Retail Sales Growth ** China Fixed Assets Investment **
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 6.7%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 1.4%.
Oil price action and sentiment spilling over to tanker market. No change in supply/demand fundamentals; abundance of available ships.
U.S. railroads originated 303,507 carloads, up 19.4% compared with the same week in 2009 and down 1.8% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +19.4%.
Weekly economic calendar.
Usual service continues on Monday.
*** The Big Picture on overbought market *** The Big Picture on Google Maps Foreclosure Features *** Calculated Risk on rising mortgage rates *** FT Alpahville on Italian banks’ subordinated debt *** FT Alpahville on U.S. treasuries sell-off *** Reuters on Orszag’s new job ***
Working gas in storage fell 89 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 80 Bcf.
I expect further increases in storage draws in following weeks.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 421.000. The consensus was at 425.000, last week revised (up 2.000) reading was at 438.000.
Econbrowser on impact of rising crude oil prices * FT Alphaville on U.S. treasury bonds * The Big Picture on consumer deleveraging * Calculated Risk on office vacancy rates
rude oil stocks fell 3.8 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 3.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 2.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 2.3 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 4.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 5.3 million barrels for the week.
Refinery utilization rose 4.9% to 87.5%.
Implied crude oil demand rose 1.3 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports rose 1.1 million barrels to 9.6 million barrels.
Kind of mixed report, large temperature related draws, on the other hand large stockpiling of gasoline and distillates. Imports increased and refinery utilization increased, so the risk is on the side of further stock increases.
Most important we had large moves in the futures curve; the curve flattened and prices in the mid of the two year curve rose higher than the prices on the end of the curve. This could be big thing and a potential prelude to the curve move into backwardation.
FT Alphaville on U.S. and European sovereign bonds * BeyondBRICs on Vale Hong Kong listing * Calculated Risk on commercial real estate * The Big Picture on amusing Google
MBA mortgage applications fell 0.9%; Prior reading was a decrease of 16.5%; On year level MBA Basic Index is down 9.3%.
MBA Refinancing index fell -1.4%; Prior reading was a decrease of 21.6%; On year level MBA Refinancing Index is down 8.0%.
MBA Purchase Index rose 1.8%. Prior reading was in increase of 1.1.%; On year level MBA Purchase Index is down 12.7%.
The bond sell-off was much hyped across the media and various commentators have provided various explanations. From my point of view all of the reason’s given don’t make much sense. So, we’ll have to wait and see if something meaningful comes along.
I’ll only repeat the famous phrase ” Don’t fight the FED”, especially taking into account that they (FED) have proved that they are capable of doing everything needed to achieve their goals.
FT Alphaville on (third) failed German government bond auction and yesterday’s sell-off in the U.S. treasuries * Macro Man on gold and (again) yesterday’s sell-off in the U.S. treasuries * Econbrowser on correlation between money base growth and inflation * Calculated Risk on tax cuts and (extended) unemployment benefits and * The New York Times on tax cuts.
Alphaville on potentially two-tired Italian interbank market and coming (again) European stress tests; BeyondBRICs on Chinese and world education; The Big Picture comparing 2005 and 2009 rallies; The Slope Of Hope on silver and Calculated risk on job market.