Global Macro Perspectives
*** FT Alphaville: Eight bond markets a-sellin’ ***
*** FT Alphaville: Why commodities may not be a good bet ***
*** The Big Picture: My thought on the yr end 2011 price target ***
*** The Big Picture: Eastman Kodak Color ***
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November was reported at -0.46 vs. revised October reading of -0.25. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.41.
*** China Financial Markets: Chinese growth in 2011 ***
*** The Big Picture: Winding Down with an Xmas Rally ***
*** The Big Picture: FusionIQ S&P 500 Technical Snapshot ***
*** FT Alphaville: Those crazy, crazy CACs ***
*** FT Alphaville: An audience with Lloyd Blankfein ***
*** FT Alphaville: Saxo’s outrageous predictions for 2011 ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Chinese train driver manual – in English? ***
*** Daily Options Report: VIX-Piracy Time! ***
Weekly economic calendar.
Baltic dry index fell 4.6% last week; Capesize Index was up 1.1%; Panamax Index fell 13.6%; Supramax Index was down 3.4%; Handysize Index rose 1.1%.
Iron stockpiles & steel inventory mostly unchanged; Iron ore and steel prices stable. No indication of any major disruptions in Chinese economy. Low rates are probably byproduct of excess supply of ships and seasonal factors (weaker construction steel demand in China during winter months).
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 2.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 2.7%.
Seasonal effects (cold weather in northern hemisphere; possibility of ice forming in the Baltic Sea) in addition to bullishness in the oil markets are keeping rates at decent levels.
U.S. railroads originated 286,391 carloads, up 9.3% compared with the same week in 2009 and down 5.5% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -5.6%.
Working gas in storage fell 164 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 165 Bcf.
Demand seems to be not sufficient to clear the excess inventory; looks like another lost winter for natural gas price ahead.
*** The Big Picture: The Bond Herd, 6% and Gold ***
*** The Big Picture: Uh-Oh: Facebook’s Zuckerberg is Time Man of the Year ***
*** The Big Picture: RealtyTrac: Foreclosures To Roar Back in 2011 ***
*** Macro Man: Order of Service ***
*** FT Alphaville: The rise in Fed funds futures rates ***
*** FT Alphaville: The luck of Lloyds ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: A carrier? What else are we missing? ***
*** Calculated Risk: Moody’s Downgrades Ireland’s Credit Rating ***
Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index rose to 24.3. The consensus was at 15.0, prior reading at 22.5.
Industrial production expansion will continue in December.
U.S. housing starts in November rose 3.9% to 555.000 vs. revised (15.000 higher) 534.000 October reading. The consensus was at 550.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are down 5.8%.
*** Macro Man: More on Ratings Agencies and Consultants – What a bunch of quants! ***
*** The Big Picture: 10 Questions for GOP Members of Financial Crisis Inquiry***
*** The Big Picture: Benign inflation? Not as I see it ***
*** The Big Picture: Inflation expectations spiking today ***
*** FT Alphaville: The (not so) curious case of the 9.85m bbl crude oil draw ***
*** FT Alphaville: Europe’s stress test was RIGHT ***
*** FT Alphaville: Waltzing towards the next, inevitable implosion ***
*** FT Alphaville: Could Exxon bid for BP? ***
*** FT Alphaville: FCIC-ya later ***
*** Calculated Risk: Commentary: Subprime Thinking ***
*** The Slope of Hope: Cramer the Bear ***
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported right at the consensus of 420.000; last week revised (up 2.000) reading was at 423.000.
Crude oil stocks fell 9.9 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 0.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 1.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 1.9 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 3.8 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 15.6 million barrels lower for the week.
Refinery utilization rose 0.5% to 88.0%.
Implied crude oil demand fell 0.5 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports fell 1.8 million barrels to 7.8 million barrels. Lowest level in more than 10 years.
Impressive and record stockpile draw; No prof of increased demand; Looks like oil traders move crude oil around the globe.
Housing Market Index for October was reported at 16, unchanged from October. Consensus was also at 16.